Europe Economics Weekly The ECB is too sanguine about monetary problems The euro-zone’s difficult monetary conditions will add to the disinflationary pressures in the region. Admittedly, Mario Draghi suggested last week that temporary factors such as the AQR were... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How will market volatility threaten the euro-zone? We doubt that the recent financial market sell-off in parts of the emerging world will be a catalyst for a renewed intensification of the euro-zone crisis. But the events underline the potential... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Housing rebound to provide some support to recovery Data released over the last week point to a brightening outlook for euro-zone households, not least because the region’s housing market downturn may be easing. But given the state of households’... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is industry defying the strong euro? Not only did November's industrial production figures indicate that euro-zone GDP may have risen more strongly in Q4 than in Q3, but they also suggested that the euro's strength is not overwhelming... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is QE finally on the way? Last week’s assertions from Mario Draghi that the ECB stands ready to use all instruments allowed by the EU Treaty looked like a hint that it is finally considering engaging in quantitative easing... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The pitfalls in the euro-zone’s road to recovery Although our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in 2014 of 0.5% is now only a little more downbeat than the consensus estimate, there remain plenty of risks that could yet derail the region's recovery... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Disaster averted for another year, but crisis unresolved Our fears that the euro-zone crisis would re-escalate in 2013 proved to be unfounded, thanks in part to the continued calming influence of the ECB’s OMT backstop. But the region’s fundamental problems... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking Union progress offers little near-term relief Last week, euro-zone policy-makers moved closer to an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism responsible for handling failed banks. But while this is certainly a positive step, it will leave the... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB being complacent about deflation? For now at least, the ECB appears happy to leave its “powerful artillery” in the arsenal due to its fairly sanguine outlook for inflation. But rather than start to rise gently in line with the ECB’s... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rating changes don't confirm convergence Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly External sector won’t drive the recovery September’s euro-zone trade data and November’s PMI surveys, both released last week, gave mixed signals on how the euro-zone’s external sector is developing. Whilst the survey data suggested that... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of growth convergence provide little comfort Q3's meagre rise in euro-zone GDP clearly was disappointing, but there were some signs that growth within the region is converging. The slowdown was largely down to weaker growth in Germany and France... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cut to provide only a little boost The ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut last week was certainly a pleasant surprise and suggests that it is not writing off the potential threat of deflation. But there was little in the press... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit constraints still a problem despite signs of easing The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS), published last week, suggested that credit constraints might soon start to ease in the euro-zone. But this improvement is only tentative; the fragility of the... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro strength threatens recovery prospects Euro-zone policymakers took another step along the path towards banking union last week, while the resolution of the US shutdown debacle appeared to remove an external threat to the region’s fragile... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
