Europe Economics Weekly France’s improving labour market There is no sign yet that the remarkable improvement in France’s labour market is going into reverse. But we suspect it will do later this year as monetary policy tightening takes effect. Meanwhile... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s property issues flare up again The fragility of Sweden’s property sector hit the headlines again this week as commercial real estate firm SBB suffered a downgrade of its credit rating to “junk” status and cancelled its dividend... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of economic weakness, rates to peak at 3.75% Hard data and surveys released this week suggests to us that although the euro-zone economy may again avoid a contraction in Q2, it will remain very weak. Otherwise, we have lowered our forecast for... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Norges Bank hiking Business surveys published this week suggest that Sweden's economy began Q2 on the back foot and is not seeing the increase in services sector activity that is taking place in the euro-zone. We still... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnant; new fiscal rules some way off Data released on Friday confirmed that the euro-zone economy was broadly stagnant in Q4 and Q1. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s proposed new fiscal rules will need further changes before member... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank’s dovish hike, Credit Suisse Q1 results Credit Suisse's Q1 results revealed the scale of the crisis that led to its demise, with CHF67bn of deposit outflows during the quarter. The quantum of SNB lending to Credit Suisse during the quarter... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona versus Krone, Switzerland outperforming We expect the Norwegian krone and the Swedish Krone to appreciate against the euro this year. The krone looks significantly undervalued to us, whereas the krona is likely to benefit from the Riksbank... 21st April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong start to Q2, 50bp May hike still on the cards The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy started Q2 on a strong footing. With underlying price pressures also still strong, we think a 50bp hike at the ECB meeting in May remains the most... 21st April 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Easing supply constraints supporting activity The latest official activity data suggest that the euro-zone economy posted a small expansion in Q1, and we expect April’s PMIs, published next week, to be consistent with continued growth. The... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Credit Suisse post mortem, Norwegian stagflation Swiss lawmakers' vote against the Credit Suisse rescue package this week does not impact the bank's takeover by UBS or the associated government guarantees. However, it has highlighted the need for... 14th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s commercial real estate problem Sweden's banking system and economy are more exposed to a downturn in the commercial real estate market than most other European countries. This is one of the reasons why we expect Sweden to... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook beyond Q1 bleak, more Italy energy support The latest survey and activity data suggest that, after stagnating in Q4, euro-zone GDP returned to growth in the first quarter. But a recession in the remainder of 2023 still seems likely to us... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm after the storm, but inflation still a headwind With the banking sector panic subsiding, attention is returning to the inflation outlook. And as core euro-zone inflation edged up to a new all-time high in March we think policymakers will remain in... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Lessons in liquidity from Credit Suisse Despite meeting its regulatory requirements, it took only a matter of days of stressed conditions for Credit Suisse to be forced into a takeover. A closer look at Credit Suisse's liquidity position... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s banks, the ECB and pension reform in France There a plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Europe’s banks. While the renewed sell-off in bank equities on Friday show that it is too soon to sound the all clear, the latest comments... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Keep calm and carry on hiking The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse may tighten lending conditions slightly due to reduced competition and potentially tighter regulation. But we don’t think there will be a significant impact on... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
