Europe Economics Weekly Low uptake dashes ECB’s hopes for TLTROs The low uptake at the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) last week supported our view that the policy is unlikely to be successful at boosting bank lending. It... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Limited room for growth-friendly fiscal policies While signs of pragmatism have recently emerged in the ongoing fiscal debate in the euro-zone, we think there is currently little room for fiscal policy to play much of a role in tackling low growth... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still tiptoeing around QE While last week’s cuts in interest rates and details of asset purchase programmes were a welcomesurprise, we still believe that the ECB will eventually have to stop tiptoeing around and take theplunge... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak data increase the chance of ECB QE Events last week gave support to our long-held view that the ECB will have to take the plunge and launch a full-blown quantitative easing programme in the coming months. Survey data added to mounting... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is recent euro-zone weakness down to the Ukraine crisis? The latest falls in business confidence and the weakness of euro-zone exports seem to relate partly to the effects of the Ukraine crisis and could therefore be fairly short-lived. But there is a risk... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stalled recovery intensifies pressure on the ECB The euro-zone’s economic recovery came to a complete halt in the second quarter at what shouldhave been a very early stage. There were some temporary factors at play which suggest thatgrowth should... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Draghi talks down the euro, but action needed While last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting offered few signs of imminent further policymeasures, one encouraging development was President Draghi’s willingness to talk down theeuro. But we think... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit conditions easing, but still very tight The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) added to the evidence that improving conditions in the euro-zone’s financial sector are finally feeding into the real economy. But it will be a while before... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers still not ready to spend freely Despite a slight fall in July, euro-zone consumer confidence remains at a high level. But this hasyet to be reflected in a significant rise in spending growth. This might be because consumers’optimism... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB edging slowly towards quantitative easing ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement last week that “QE falls squarely in our mandate” was perhaps the strongest signal yet that the ECB is considering bolder policy support. But Bundesbank... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Don't bank on a German industrial resurgence Data published last week revealed that production fell in all four of the euro-zone’s largest economies in May. But the downturn in Germany has been most disappointing given hopes that this industrial... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro finally about to drop? Recent policy developments support our expectation that the euro will fall against the US dollar. We forecast a rate of $1.30 at end-2014 and $1.25 at end-2015. But that fall could be too little too... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery over already? Last week's euro-zone economic data added to the growing weight of evidence that the fledgling recovery in the currency union - which only really got going a year ago - is already running out of steam... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak wage growth adds to deflation risks Data last week revealed that euro-zone labour costs growth fell to just 0.9% in Q1, adding to evidence of deflationary pressure in the region. The fall in wage growth has not been confined to the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral industry on its feet but not ready to run Industrial production is now expanding faster in the euro-zone’s periphery than in the core. While this reflects progress made towards restructuring in the peripheral economies, industry still faces... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still at the back of the pack While the ECB made a number of announcements last week, the policies involved are not as bold as they might seem. The interest rate cuts were clearly tiny and the decision not to sterilise bond... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
