Europe Economics Weekly Two cheers for the ECB The ECB’s Governing Council deserves credit for meeting the demandingly high level of expectations with last week’s announcement of a quantitative easing programme worth at least €1trn. The size and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly SNB move is a heavy blow for the Swiss economy The sharp appreciation of the franc caused by the Swiss National Bank’s abandonment of its currency ceiling last week led to a substantial drop in the domestic value of the SNB’s foreign currency... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to focus on deflation, not politics Data last week, including the drop in HICP inflation to -0.2%, heightened the risk of a prolonged bout of deflation in the single currency area. But on the face of it at least, the escalating... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A predictably weak year The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis and falling oil price strengthen case for QE We disagree with speculation that the resurgence of the Greek crisis and the fall in the oil price have reduced the chance of quantitative easing. Indeed, we think that both factors have increased the... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must deliver on QE to push euro lower The rise in the euro during the ECB’s press conference last week apparently reflected disappointment that President Draghi did not provide more explicit signals that quantitative easing (QE) is coming... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the euro fallen far enough? The fall in the euro since the spring looks likely to have at least some upward effect on both the growth of euro-zone exports and the level of euro-zone consumer price inflation. But the ECB should... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB divisions point to half-hearted QE The objections of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann to the prospect of an ECB quantitative easing programme including government bond purchases are unlikely to prevent such a programme being... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The periphery catches up – oh dear One notable element of last week’s euro-zone GDP figures for the third quarter was the strength of the peripheral economies, even Greece, in relation to the core. This might be seen as confirmation... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will trigger ECB QE and when? The ECB suggested last week that preparations are finally underway to launch full-blown quantitative easing. It seems that action will be triggered by either of two factors: evidence that existing... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking sector recovery still appears fragile Last week’s bank stress test results, September’s lending data and the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey all suggested that conditions in the euro-zone’s banking sector are, on the whole, improving... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stress tests to put spotlight on Italy and Greece The Comprehensive Assessment of the euro-zone’s banks published on Sunday should go some way towards restoring sentiment in the banking sector. After all, the adverse economic scenarios to which the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets and Merkel won’t let austerity slip Last week’s rise in peripheral euro-zone bond yields mainly reflected contagion effects from Greece’s sell-off, rather than general fiscal concerns. Indeed, draft 2015 budgets showed most countries... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany needs more stimulus for its own sake Recent renewed calls for the German Government to take advantage of its fiscal room for manoeuvre in order to stimulate its economy have centred on the potentially beneficial effects on its weaker... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB already doing QE? The ECB confirmed last week that it will start to buy assets outright later this month and that the purchases will not be sterilised. But technically, this probably still amounts to credit easing... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro's drop doesn't let ECB off the hook The continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate points to much-needed increases in export growth and imported inflation in the coming months. But this does not eliminate the risk of deflation and... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
