Europe Economics Weekly Renewed recession adds to Greece’s woes The Greek crisis has intensified, with last week’s Eurogroup meeting offering little hope of near-term financial support and the Government resorting to reserves held at the IMF to make a loan... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Market gyrations could threaten recovery The sharp rise in euro-zone bond yields and further appreciation of the euro last week might look like a response to the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. But the renewed... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Deflation dangers have not yet lifted April’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation to zero left the latest bout of falling prices shorter, at four months, than that seen back in 2009. But with fundamental forces still bearing down on inflation... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis starts to restrain the recovery Friday’s Eurogroup meeting did not appear to result in any further progress towards a solution to the Greek crisis. While Greece has found a bit more money down the back of the sofa (or in state... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil and euro boosts to growth will fade next year We have revised our forecasts for euro-zone GDP growth higher to reflect the positive effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro. But growth could slow again next year as those positive... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece & the ECB both have a lot more work to do The more detailed list of proposed reforms submitted by Greece last week potentially provided the basis for an agreement that will allow it to meet its near-term financial obligations. But the tussles... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers look ready to start spending Buoyed by falling unemployment, rising equity prices and a boost to their spending power from a lower oil price, euro-zone consumers have become increasingly confident, with the EC’s measure of... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece still hanging by a thread While there have been few firm developments in the ongoing Greek crisis in recent weeks, the general news on the progress towards plugging the country’s short-term financing hole and finding a lasting... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Now is the euro low enough? The drop in the euro to a 12-year low against the US dollar should clearly provide some support to both activity and inflation in the euro-zone. But it would be wrong to think that its effects are... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A long road still ahead for Greece The markets responded with some relief to last week’s provisional approval by the institutions formerly known as the troika of the proposal advanced by the Greek government for a four-month extension... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly More on the rising risk and effects of a Grexit The risk of a Grexit has risen further still this week with the positions of the Eurogroup and the Greek Government seeming to be as far apart as ever. Even if a deal is cobbled together at the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Time is running out for Greece The failure of the Eurogroup last week to agree even on steps for further discussions on Greece does not bode well for the emergence of a full solution at Monday’s meeting. This could prompt nerves... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets still complacent on Greece’s debt challenge Our concerns that the markets have been under-estimating the challenge faced by the new Syriza-led Greek Government and the Troika in trying to reach a mutually acceptable solution to Greece’s debt... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
