Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s problems lie closer to home than China We are fairly relaxed about the impact of a slowdown in China on the euro-zone. Most importantly, this is because the concerns about the Chinese economy look overblown. And in any case, the direct... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bailout almost there, but it may not last long The remaining hurdles to the implementation of the third Greek bailout look likely to be cleared in the next few days. But the deal could unravel quite quickly if Greece fails to meet the extremely... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the Spanish economy keep its place in the sun? Spain is set to remain the fastest growing of the major euro-zone economies for the next few quarters. But while the economy’s fundamentals have improved, the recent impressive growth rates also rest... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bailout on the rocks before it’s begun? Looking ahead to this week, we think that euro-zone retail sales data for June will reveal a slight slowdown in annual sales growth. On a country level, indicative of their wider economic performances... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak growth hindering euro-zone’s fiscal progress Greece last week passed the necessary reforms to start negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout. But with the country back in recession, it will struggle to meet the creditors’ fiscal goals... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal clears some hurdles, plenty left The plan for a third Greek bailout has cleared a number of hurdles over the last week, including provisional approval by the Greek and German parliaments. But there are plenty of obstacles yet to be... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Greek bailout would just delay the inevitable There appears to be a chance that Greece and its creditors will come to a last minute agreement on a new bailout which avoids an imminent Greek departure from the currency union. But there are many... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Nai or Oxi? Sunday’s Greek referendum result looks likely to be very close. But regardless of whether the outcome is Nai or Oxi, unless any resulting deal includes a substantial form of debt relief, the crisis... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The end is (really) near The failure to reach a deal at last week’s Eurogroup meeting and the rapid outflow of deposits from Greek banks suggest that a near-term euro-zone exit may now be more likely than not. We do not buy... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Was Q1’s growth as good as it gets for the euro-zone? Despite the benefits of a weak euro and low oil prices, the latest hard data suggest that the upturn in the euro-zone economy has not gathered further momentum in Q2. This tentatively supports survey... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink Greece’s decision to emulate Zambia and bundle its June IMF payments has allowed another “make or break” moment to pass without either. But the continued divergences between the country and its... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth won’t halt rise in Spain’s debt ratio Spain’s economy continues to go from strength to strength and could well grow by more than 3% this year. But with the large amount of spare capacity set to keep inflation negative or low, and growing... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger German recovery depends on export revival Last week’s data gave mixed signals about Germany. On the one hand, the second GDP release showed that Q1’s slowdown belied a strong domestic economy and May’s Ifo survey pointed to a pick-up in... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
