Europe Economics Weekly Policy inaction will delay euro-zone recovery This week, Christine Lagarde’s first speech as ECB president and the account of October’s policy meeting suggested that monetary policy will be on autopilot for some time. There seems to be little... 22nd November 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank’s resolve to be tested next year The recent downward revisions to Sweden’s unemployment rate will no doubt be interpreted by the Riksbank as justification for its plan to raise the repo rate out of negative territory in December. But... 15th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Domestic demand fading as main driver of growth Domestic demand appears to have been the main driver of euro-zone GDP growth in Q3 but this looks set to fade as employment growth slows. Indeed, the first surveys for November next week are likely to... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Breman unlikely to rock the boat at the Riksbank The forthcoming addition of Anna Bremen to the Riksbank’s Executive Board is unlikely to significantly affect the balance among the Bank’s policymakers. While we think that they will follow through on... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EC growth forecasts still too optimistic Regardless of the outcome of Spain’s latest general election on Sunday, we think its economy is set to slow. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy should have narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q3 (data... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to loosen policy again next year The return of deflation to Switzerland in October lends support to our dovish view that the SNB will loosen policy further next year. Next week, we expect the release of the services PMI from Sweden... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghila’s exit won’t ease the pain for German savers The Q3 GDP data released this week were better than expected. But given that the timelier surveys for the start of Q4 have continued to deteriorate, the outlook still seems pretty bleak. We expect Ms... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy data overshadow Draghi’s finale Business surveys for October published this week supported our view that economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to remain anaemic until well into 2020, requiring incoming ECB President Christine... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to hike back to zero; Finland losing steam While the Riksbank appears dead-set on raising its repo rate back to zero in December, we suspect that it will only be a matter of time before it will have to loosen policy again. Meanwhile, we expect... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dodgy data; Switzerland goes to the polls Despite “quality flaws” in Sweden’s unemployment data, the body of economic evidence still suggests that the economy is very weak. Meanwhile, the Green Party looks set to take make sizeable gains in... 18th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No fiscal boost in 2020, Brexit deal on a knife edge Euro-zone governments have promised a fiscal stimulus in 2020, but we doubt that they will live up to their promises. Meanwhile, we expect the ECB to leave policy settings unchanged on Thursday at Mr... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SEK and NOK to fall further over the next six months Despite the healthy-looking activity data from Sweden for August, we are still bracing ourselves for a grim Q3 GDP figure and think that the risks to the krona are rooted to the downside. Meanwhile... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Divisions at the ECB won’t prevent further easing The national industrial data released this week suggest that euro-zone production rose in August. But this looks like a blip not a turning point. With growth set to slow and inflation remain subdued... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Things go from bad to worse in Sweden The sharp falls in the Swedish PMIs in September indicate that the economy contracted in Q3, while the slump in Swiss inflation in September will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US-EU aircraft dispute increases trade war risks The latest data suggest that euro-zone growth will continue to slow, and the WTO’s decision to grant the US permission to raise tariffs on the EU increases the risk that the bloc is drawn into the... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden stuck in first gear; Swiss franc on the up The latest survey data from Sweden provide further proof that the economy is too weak for the Riksbank to be able to raise interest rates within the next six months, as it forecasts. Meanwhile, we... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
