Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone leaders argue as economy collapses Data this week provided yet more evidence that the lockdowns in place across the euro-zone have caused economic activity to collapse, forcing firms to lay off millions of workers across the region at... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian unemployment explodes close to 15% While the decline in the Swedish services PMI in March seems small compared to the eye-watering declines in the euro-zone, the underlying picture is worse than it may first appear. Next week, we... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB steps up, EU leaders at loggerheads Evidence is mounting that the slump in euro-zone GDP will be even steeper than the 15% drop that we had anticipated. This will put huge pressure on the public finances. The ECB has at least taken the... 27th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB puts its moral hazard worries to the side The virus-related hit to activity appears to be even deeper than the 15% q/q declines in GDP that we tentatively pencilled in a few weeks ago. Data released next week are likely to show that Swiss CPI... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK carnage; Danish rate hike! The Norwegian krone has endured an extraordinary week and will be vulnerable to further falls until market sentiment improves. Nonetheless, if our forecast for oil prices to start to rise later this... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s next challenge is to raise its issuer limits Following the huge expansion of its asset purchases this week, the ECB’s will still need to raise the issuer limits on its bond holdings. We think it will eventually do so, providing a credible... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Market rout as EZ policymakers fail to convince Despite a rebound today, euro-zone financial markets have had a disastrous week as policymakers, including the ECB, failed to convince investors that they will respond adequately to the economic shock... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policy response will only cushion the blow The market slump will galvanise policymakers into action. The situation is evolving quickly but we now think there will be a fiscal stimulus of at least 1% of GDP in the euro-zone this year, and... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers edging closer to a coronavirus response It’s a very close call, but we think that the Riksbank will cut the repo rate back to -0.25% at its next scheduled rate decision on 28th April, if not before. Meanwhile, the recent rise in the Swiss... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Household spending to be hit by the virus The ten-fold increase in confirmed coronavirus cases and slump in equity prices over the past week has increased the risk of a recession. We would not be surprised if the ECB issues an official... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Positive surveys, but they are now old news While the improvements in the latest surveys from Sweden and Switzerland offer some encouragement that the two economies gathered a bit of momentum at the start of 2020, they are already old news... 28th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys do little to dispel gloomy outlook The economic surveys this week suggested that the euro-zone economy held up better in the face of the coronavirus than had been feared. But the detail of the PMIs still showed that the virus had taken... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank as divided as ever; Swiss industry in a rut While the Riksbank is keen to present a united front, the minutes from its February meeting, published this morning, show that the Executive Board is as divided as ever. Next week, Q4 GDP data from... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB on hold until later this year The recent economic data have continued to be weak, and ECB policymakers seem more united behind their current “unconventional” policy than they were last year. However, we see no chance of further... 14th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still in love with zero While the Riksbank left policy unchanged this week, we suspect that weak GDP growth and inflation will prompt it to ease policy soon. Next week’s data are likely to show that inflation fell in Sweden... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
