Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank on hold; Franc rises to near 3-year high Political developments in Norway this past week are no game changer for the economic outlook; we suspect that monetary policy there will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. In contrast, we... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB stuck between a rock and a hard place The re-inclusion of Switzerland on the US Treasury’s Monitoring List of potential currency manipulators this week was interpreted by investors as a shot across the bow of the SNB. However, we doubt... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Another false dawn for inflation? We doubt that the increase in core inflation late last year marks the start of a sustained upward trend. After all, inflation has risen on several previous occasions recently, only to fall back again... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank leaves door ajar for rate hike reversal Having resumed its interventions to weaken the Swiss franc after the recent flare-up in geopolitical tensions, we think that it will only be a matter of time before a rate cut comes back on the agenda... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 2020 will be another disappointing year The latest data suggest that the euro-zone economy might have avoided a further slowdown in Q4 last year, adding to the evidence that growth is “bottoming out”. However, the economy seems to have... 3rd January 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss economy sluggish, Sweden’s woes persist The latest surveys suggest that the Swiss economy is set to carry on growing at a fairly sluggish pace in the first half of this year, while Sweden’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ troubles likely to re-emerge in 2020s The euro-zone is ending this decade in better shape than it ended the last one. But its fundamental problems have not been resolved, so we expect the region to face serious challenges in the decade to... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Two Riksbank doves; E-krona edging closer to reality Confirmation this week that the new member of the Riksbank’s Executive Board, Anna Breman, is more a dove than a hawk lends support to our non-consensus forecast that the Bank will end up cutting the... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A dove in owls clothing Christine Lagarde seems to have similar views on monetary policy to Mario Draghi. And she admitted that inflation is likely to remain below target in the medium term, and that the latest TLTRO auction... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK and SEK diverge; Riksbank to hike back to zero The weak Regional Network Survey triggered a sell-off in the Norwegian krone on Tuesday, but it has since made up all the ground that it lost, and more. We are comfortable with our forecast for it to... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Weak Swedish data; SNB to maintain the status quo The latest run of weak data from Sweden is unlikely to sway the Riksbank from hiking on the 19 th December, but only reaffirms our view that the Bank will have to loosen policy next year. We think... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy data ahead of Lagarde’s ECB debut Data released this week have reinforced our view that economic growth is likely to slow in the coming quarters. Next week, Christine Lagarde’s debut press conference will be watched closely for any... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Greening the ECB, surveys still downbeat The ECB may start to pay a lot of attention to climate change under Christine Lagarde’s leadership. But for the foreseeable future it will struggle to achieve its main objective of getting inflation... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Q3 GDP data are not a sign of things to come While Q3 GDP data from Switzerland and Sweden, released this week, were stronger than what we had pencilled in, they do not change our views on the outlooks for monetary policy in either case. We... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ‘Booming’ Swiss IP; GDP data to show slower growth The 8% y/y increase in Swiss industrial production in Q3 masked a “two speed” sector, in which pharmaceutical production is trending up but German-facing firms are struggling. Meanwhile, after a... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
