Europe Economics Weekly Localised virus outbreaks not derailing the recovery This week brought further evidence that the early stages of the euro-zone’s economic recovery looked remarkably V-shaped. But the rebound will lose pace in the second half of the year and we think it... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perky PMIs and a Riksbank surprise The June PMI surveys from the Nordics add to the evidence that the region’s economies are further down the road to recovery than others in Europe. Next week, mainland GDP data from Norway for May will... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly V-shaped after all? News that German consumers went on a spending spree in May has raised hopes that the recovery will be V-shaped after all, but the wider economy will not get back to normal for a long time yet. Next... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nordic consumers making up for lost time The fact that retail sales volumes grew in year-on-year terms in the Nordic economies in May suggests that the Covid-related drops in consumption may end up being much smaller than we have assumed up... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Official data signal May rebound, June surveys upbeat This week the first official data for May confirmed the message from the high frequency data and the surveys that economic activity in the euro-zone is recovering fairly strongly. And the latest... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Revised forecasts; policy stasis; football is back! Amid increasing signs that the Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis better than most we have upgraded our forecasts for GDP growth, and expect some clear daylight between growth in Sweden... 19th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of life after lockdown This week we got some evidence that euro-zone economies are coming back to life after the lockdowns, led by stronger household spending. But they remain far from fighting fit. And next week, several... 19th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Output down by 25%, TLTRO demand to be strong Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted by about a quarter between February and April, and that there has been only a small rebound since then. Next week, the ECB is... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden is weathering Covid comparatively well The 11% peak-to-trough drop in Swedish household consumption between February and April puts paid to any notion that Sweden has escaped unscathed following its light-touch lockdown. Nonetheless, the... 12th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB gets the chance to regroup; Norway picking up The positive policy moves out of Europe have weighed on the Swiss franc and has ratcheted down the pressure on the SNB. Meanwhile, Norway’s economy appears to have clawed back about half of what was... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity still depressed, policymakers step up support Data published this week added to evidence that economic activity in the euro-zone is slowly resuming after a catastrophic April, but that it remains well below “normal” levels. Against this backdrop... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EU borrowing plans helpful, but not a panacea The publication of the EC’s blueprint for joint borrowing has been hailed by some as a “Hamilton moment”, referring to the 1790 decision by the first US Treasury Secretary to take on the debt of the... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Repo rate cut in the pipeline The fact that the Swedish economy grew a touch in Q1 adds to signs that the country has enjoyed some economic benefit from its light-touch lockdown. However, exports probably won’t save the day again... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB preparing the ground for more bond purchases The account of April’s ECB meeting, and some recent comments from senior members of the Governing Council, suggest that the ECB is gearing up to increase its bond purchases. Next week, the European... 22nd May 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly “Personae non gratae” Swedes; Swiss franc falls The possibility of countries keeping their borders with Sweden closed given the higher prevalence of Covid-19 there underlines that the country is likely to see limited economic benefit from its light... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway rips up the fiscal rule book Having endured a bruising few months, the risks to the Norwegian krone now appear to be on the upside, not least given that the government plans to spend a greater proportion of the pension fund this... 15th May 2020 · 4 mins read
