Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Rebounds set to falter; SNB navigating sub-zero life With further easing by the ECB set to arrive next month, or even sooner, we expect FX interventions to remain Swiss policymakers’ first line of defence. Next week, GDP data from Norway will confirm... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP to fall by about 3% q/q in Q4 The downside risks to our forecasts are crystallising and we now think that the euro-zone economy will contract by about 3% in Q4. The ECB looks set to loosen policy in December, and we will be... 6th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Another lockdown, another downturn With France and Germany announcing one-month national lockdowns this week, and other countries likely to follow suit, we expect the euro-zone economy to contract in the coming months. Moreover, the... 30th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss recovery at risk of reversal A continued surge in virus cases has forced Swiss and Nordic governments to tighten restrictions this week and there is a risk that Switzerland follows in France and Germany’s footsteps and imposes a... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy outlook warrants more stimulus The further surge in virus cases this week and the additional restrictions imposed strengthen our view that euro-zone GDP will at best stagnate over the next six months and the risks are tilted firmly... 23rd October 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly From bad to worse in Switz; High noon in Sweden The surge in virus cases in Switzerland means that the government is all but certain to tighten restrictions, probably severely, next week. While the strong finish to Q3 provides a solid platform for... 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 GDP to be very weak, but good news for bonds With COVID-19 infections shooting up and governments implementing stricter containment measures, very weak GDP growth in Q4 seems all but certain. But with the ECB standing behind the bond market, the... 16th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surging virus cases cast a shadow over Switzerland The appreciation of the Swiss franc to a three-month high against the euro this week opens the door to renewed FX interventions by the SNB. However, if appetite for risk improves next year, as we... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Retail sales strength belies overall economic weakness While retail sales have more than regained their pre-coronavirus level, other parts of the economy are lagging well behind. With the virus restrictions being tightened, the chances of a new downturn... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Defiant SNB; slowing recoveries Comments this week by Thomas Jordan reiterated that the SNB is not fazed by Switzerland’s inclusion on the US Treasury’s monitoring list of potential currency manipulators, and that policymakers would... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New virus numbers peaking, inflation falls further There is a chink of light at the end of the tunnel for France and Spain, where the number of new COVID-19 cases has begun to fall. But this may be too late to prevent a contraction in GDP in the... 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to push for parity against SEK next year We think the combination of a recovery in risk appetite and an expected increase in oil prices will support the Norwegian krone in 2021, and that it will regain ground on its Swedish cousin. Data due... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Fighter jets, wolves, and immigration While Sunday’s vote on restricting freedom of movement between Switzerland and the EU seems unlikely to pass, it puts the strained relations between the Swiss government and the EU back in focus. Next... 25th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services activity falling as virus rules are tightened This week brought evidence that the economic recovery is grinding to a halt and that activity in the services sector is falling. And with the stringency of virus containment measures only going in one... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers to keep their powder dry next week The three scheduled policy meetings next week are unlikely to result in any changes to policy settings. However, we would not be surprised to see the Norges Bank bring forward the projected start-date... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown risks rise, low inflation here to stay The escalation of virus cases in parts of France and Spain, with officials worrying about the strain on hospitals, means that we would not be surprised to see strict regional lockdowns imposed in the... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
