Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Rate cut more likely than not in Denmark Another week another set of data which add to the signs that Norway’s and Sweden’s economies ended Q4 on a decent note and outperformed even the best-performing major euro-zone economies in 2020... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly In store for a bumpy start to 2021 The gloomy backdrop of rising virus cases casts a dark shadow over Q1. However, we expect the rollout of vaccines will pave the way to a rebound in economic activity in May/June, and that Nordic... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Fast-spreading virus, slow vaccinations The economy withstood the second lockdowns comparatively well in November and December. But rising virus numbers and the painfully slow start to the vaccination rollout mean that the region is... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB pleads “not guilty”; Denmark to close down The designation of Switzerland as a “currency manipulator” by the US Treasury means that the SNB will enter 2021 on the economic equivalent of the naughty step. However, we suspect that the incoming... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lessons for 2021 Based on this year’s experience, activity should rebound quickly in 2021 once restrictions are lifted, probably during Q2. But with price pressures set to remain very weak at least for the next couple... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank divided; SNB & Norges Bank to hold rates The minutes from the Riksbank’s November meeting confirmed that a repo rate cut is not completely off the table. However, the vaccine has brightened the outlook next year, and we no longer forecast a... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Suspect Swedish PMI; from Minkgate to Skigate While the pick-up in the services PMI in Sweden in November was a bit of a surprise, the prospect of restrictions having to be tightened even further means that the sector is far from out of the woods... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ailing economy to get policy booster A mixed bag of data releases this week leaves us happy with our forecasts for a 3% contraction in GDP this quarter and a strong recovery next year as vaccines are rolled out. Next week, the ECB will... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank steps up as the SNB settles in The Riksbank justifiably felt the need to give the economy a shot in the arm at its meeting this week. But positive news on the vaccine front means that it should be able to avoid increasing the dose... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to give economy a shot in the arm We see substantial upside risk to our forecasts for next year, thanks to the prospect of a mass vaccination programme. But the near-term outlook is still gloomy, with November's PMI scheduled for... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Minkgate fallout; Riksbank to expand QE next week The political wrangling in Denmark following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country’s mink farms shifted up a gear this week and the economic damage from the lockdown in North Jutland is racking up... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mutation in mink; Swiss the first to blink The prospect of a vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, clouds have darkened over Q4 and things will get worse before they get... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine optimism but restrictions take their toll While an effective vaccine that would transform the economic outlook looks more likely than it did only a week ago, questions about how and when it will be distributed still need to be answered. So it... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
