Europe Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy keeping interest spending low There were no real surprises at this week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers doing little to push back against the increase in bond yields since March. But yields remain extremely low by historical... 23rd April 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss President to use his mojo, but not like BoJo After years of inaction, the recent round of Swiss-EU talks on a new bilateral “framework agreement” suggest there is finally some light at the end of the tunnel, which would help remove some economic... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine blues threaten to further delay recovery News that distribution of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is being paused is another blow to Europe’s vaccination programme and reinforces our view that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to begin a... 16th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No AZ jabs please, we’re Danish The tide has turned against the AstraZeneca vaccine in Denmark and Norway and fewer available vaccine doses could delay the rollouts in the Nordics, potentially by several months. At this stage, we... 16th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Switzerland gets a clean report card from the IMF The support voiced by the IMF for the SNB’s policies following the latest Article IV consultation with Switzerland provides further cover, if needed, for the Bank to push back against accusations of... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys overstating strength of the economy The strength of the euro-zone’s business surveys has not been matched by the official data, and with tighter restrictions being imposed for longer in many countries the level of output is likely to... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Manufacturing to cushion blow from rising virus cases The spaghetti-tree hoax of 1957, which centred on a Swiss family harvesting spaghetti, is widely regarded as one of the most successful April Fools’ jokes, but Swiss manufacturers are far too busy at... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Falling behind on vaccines, stimulus While European manufacturing output is recovering strongly, tougher coronavirus restrictions announced in France and Italy this week have underlined that a sustained and broad-based economic rebound... 1st April 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark charts new course as the SNB steams ahead While lockdowns are being tightened and/or extended in much of mainland Europe, the attention in Denmark is shifting towards easing restrictions, which should allow activity there to rebound sooner... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Updating our GDP and markets forecasts This week, we revised our forecasts for GDP, bond yields and the euro. We now think that the euro-zone economy will recover more slowly than we previously anticipated, growing by about 3% this year... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Hawkish Norges Bank to help push NOK higher You don’t need to be a mind reader to figure out what the Norges Bank is thinking, and it now expects to start raising interest rates in late 2021. As it happens, given the momentum in oil prices and... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No show of ECB strength, third wave underway While we assume that the ECB has stepped up its bond purchases under the PEPP this week, bond market moves have provided little reassurance that the Bank is determined to squash any rise in yields... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB promises more, but keeps it flexible The ECB’s policy statement this week pledges more support, but leaves plenty of room for disputes over the meanings of a “significantly higher pace” of asset purchases and “favourable” financing... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Brace yourself for a more hawkish Norges Bank We think that the Norges Bank will bring forward the projected start date of interest rate hikes next Thursday, and there is a chance that it could re-tighten macroprudential policy too. Meanwhile, we... 12th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Franc falls further; kNOcKing on the door of SEK parity The further fall in the Swiss franc this week will have caused smiles all around at the SNB, and the stage looks set for the currency to ease lower this year. The major event next week will be the ECB... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Covid infections, bond yields and inflation Pressure on public health services has continued to build, prompting some governments to extend their Covid restrictions until late March. Meanwhile, higher inflation and bond yields will make the ECB... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
