Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry holds back otherwise strong recovery This week provided yet more good news on the euro-zone, with case numbers falling consistently in some countries, vaccine rollouts on track, and both the survey and official data suggesting that the... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Reopening effects to persist in Q3 The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Spare capacity in labour market mutes wage pressures We now expect the euro-zone economy to grow more quickly this year than the consensus or the ECB expects. Inflation too will be higher than others are forecasting as supply shortages persist into the... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics SNB not following ECB; Sweden bucks inflation trend The SNB confirmed this week that it wouldn’t be following the ECB in raising its inflation target, but that doesn’t change the big picture that it looks set to leave interest rates on hold for a very... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Investors’ ECB rate hike expectations look premature There has been very little market reaction to the ECB raising its inflation target to 2%, probably because the change was broadly in line with expectations. But markets are discounting ECB rate hikes... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to stay on hold; Swiss Saturday Night Fever With the Swedish economy going great guns but little sign of inflationary trouble on the horizon, we expect the Riksbank to maintain the status quo at its policy meeting next Thursday. Otherwise, the... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ economy bounces back, but ECB doves hold sway The uniformly strong surveys for June suggest that the euro-zone economy is recovering at a decent pace from the lockdowns earlier in the year. That might prompt some re-opening inflation – data next... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
