Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to take ECB’s lead; Stoltenberg for NB? Having drawn flak from domestic banks for keeping interest rates well below zero since 2015, the SNB would surely take the chance to raise its policy rate at the earliest possibility after the ECB... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly How to get a job at the SNB; declining mobility Our CE Mobility Trackers for Sweden and Norway paint a downbeat picture for the consumer sector and mirror the clear downward trend seen in the euro-zone over H2 2021. So while we still expect the... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Omicron uncertainty weighs on activity in Q4 This week brought more bad news for the euro-zone economy, with the surge in cases and spread of the Omicron variant casting a shadow over services sector activity. While recent restrictions have... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish It is too early to judge how serious the B.1.1.529 variant will turn out to be, but it certainly reinforces the case for central banks to be ultra-cautious when withdrawing their policy support. We... 26th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Virus news testing the SNB; “Take 2” for Swedish PM Market worries about the B.1.1.529 virus variant have exacerbated upward pressure on the safe-haven Swiss franc and will test the SNB’s tolerance of a stronger currency. In our view, the Bank seems to... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Austria lockdown casts shadow over rest of euro-zone The “full lockdown” in Austria announced earlier today is a response to the rapid deterioration in the Covid situation there and we estimate that it could knock around 1.5% off the country’s GDP in Q4... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB abandons its long-standing line of defence We argued only last week that the SNB would be comfortable with letting the Swiss franc rise against the euro. As it happens, after the franc pushed through the long-defended CHF 1.05 per euro mark in... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Would the SNB be comfortable with franc/euro parity? The persistent weakness of Swiss inflation, and the resulting trend appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, presents the SNB with a moving target when assessing when it will intervene during bouts... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Covid cases and inflation on the rise Inflation releases in Germany and the US this week highlighted how price pressures are still weaker in the euro-zone. Next week, we will get the full breakdown of euro-zone inflation in October, which... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB pushes back as inflation pressures build ECB policymakers were out in force this week insisting that the Bank will not raise rates next year. We agree that they are very unlikely to do so, not least because we think the Bank’s inflation... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Déjà vu at the SNB; labour shortages reach Greenland The renewed rise in the Swiss franc has lifted it back to territory that will ring alarm bells at the SNB, and the usual release of sight deposit data on Monday morning will indicate whether the Bank... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Investors unconvinced by ECB’s dovish message The ECB’s “soul searching” over inflation has made investors less, not more, convinced that the Bank will buck the hawkish trend elsewhere and keep policy rates on hold. We think investors have got... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply problems remain; Norges Bank to press on Sweden’s Q3 GDP data, published this week, were not as strong as they first appeared, and we expect supply problems to continue to weigh on activity there. The latest data for Switzerland suggest that... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
