Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply problems remain; Norges Bank to press on Sweden’s Q3 GDP data, published this week, were not as strong as they first appeared, and we expect supply problems to continue to weigh on activity there. The latest data for Switzerland suggest that... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply issues biting in Sweden; e-krona has a logo! We assume that Swedish output recovered about two thirds of August’s precipitous plunge in September, and that preliminary Q3 GDP data due for release next week will show that the economy grew by 0.7%... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Few signs of inflation in Scandinavia While global financial markets are obsessing over the possible rebirth of inflation, there are precious few signs that it is about to take off in Scandinavia. The increases in headline inflation for... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy, semi-conductors and Italy’s Green Pass The continued high level of energy prices strengthens our view that euro-zone inflation will keep rising in the coming months. But by lowering consumers’ purchasing power, it could actually reduce... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy costs soar, vehicle output slumps Soaring energy costs are yet another headwind to the euro-zone’s economic recovery. That said, while the balance of risks has arguably shifted to the upside, we still think price pressures are likely... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s August shocker The slump in Sweden’s GDP indicator for August brought its economy back below its pre-pandemic level, whereas Norway – which appears to be unencumbered by these headwinds – saw its economy continue... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly “Transitory” inflation won’t spook the ECB We have revised up our inflation forecasts this week and expect the surge in gas prices to keep inflation above the ECB’s target for longer than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, inflation looks... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Opinions at Riksbank slowly starting to shift our way The minutes from the Riksbank’s last meeting, which were released this week, indicate that half of the six Executive Board members think the time is approaching to dial the dovishness back a touch... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth to stay weak, inflation to keep rising Data published this week highlight the challenge to euro-zone consumers from subdued pay growth and rising inflation. We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, and probably further than... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monetary policy decisions, served three ways After months of anticipation, the Norges Bank will surely pull the trigger on its long-awaited tightening cycle next Thursday. We suspect that policymakers will portray the rate rise as a “dovish hike... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A look ahead to December’s ECB meeting Following yesterday’s comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Bank looks set to make crucial decisions about the future of QE at its December meeting. We suspect that it will end its net... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to rise further, but then fall Inflation will rise further from the 3% level reached in August in the coming months, but we are confident that it will drop back sharply next year, as most measures of underlying inflation and wage... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read