Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 19th December 2024, 3:00PM GMT Join our senior economists for this dive into the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024, and a look-ahead to see how these banks will calibrate monetary policy in the coming year...
Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity? ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and... 25th October 2024 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak euro-zone activity data, ECB responds As widely expected, the ECB cut its policy rates by 25bp yesterday, but its policy statement was a bit more dovish than anticipated and a 50bp cut in the future is a growing possibility. Meanwhile... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France budget needs more than temporary fixes Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed revisited, France’s new government We do not think the Fed’s 50bp rate cut or the latest euro-zone HICP inflation breakdown will put the ECB off its plans for gradual policy easing. Meanwhile, France looks close to having a new... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October cut possible, but December still more likely Post-meeting comments by ECB policymakers suggest that the bar for another rate cut in October is high, with December the most likely option. Meanwhile, the ECB’s new GDP projections still look too... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Taking stock of the euro-zone’s Q3 performance so far At this stage, we have no significant hard data with which to assess economic activity in the euro-zone in Q3. But the signs from the business surveys are not promising. Meanwhile, the minutes of the... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No need to cry over subsidised milk This week’s EU-China spat over EV and dairy duties was interpreted by the EU’s Chief diplomat as a sign that a trade war may be “unavoidable”, but we think it is actually evidence that both sides will... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How worrying is German wage inflation? In our view, the concerns which were raised again this week about a wage-price spiral in Germany look overdone. The Indeed tracker suggests that wage pressures have eased since late 2022 and there are... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
