Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to remain high in 2024 Data released today showed that Spanish inflation picked up from 2.9% in February to 3.2% in March. We think it is likely to increase further over the coming months due to base effects in energy... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB starts its loosening cycle, Norges Bank on hold The SNB under Chairman Thomas Jordan has never shied away from making big calls, so it was fitting that it surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut today, to 1.5%, only three weeks after Mr Jordan... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank eyeing May for first rate cut We think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% next week but cut it by 25bp at the following meeting, in May. Beyond that, our forecast is for rates to come down much faster than... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to lead the G10 central banks in rate cuts Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer Inflation in Norway has fallen more quickly than Norges Bank expected, so at next week’s meeting it is likely to signal that it will cut interest rates sooner than it previously expected, perhaps in... 14th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to maintain a bond portfolio indefinitely The ECB’s new operational framework for implementing monetary policy, announced this afternoon, was largely in line with our expectations and has no immediate implications for monetary policy. But it... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won't cut rates before June Today’s ECB decision was in line with expectations and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference reinforce our view that June is the earliest date by which the Bank will start to cut rates. 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss disinflation largely complete, rate cuts incoming The disinflation story is largely over in Switzerland, and rising rent inflation may actually cause headline inflation to increase in the summer. However, this will not stop the SNB from cutting its... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monthly data overstating German industrial decline Monthly industrial production data have been overstating the decline in German industry. Nonetheless, the more accurate gross value added measure still shows that activity has been falling. 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued January’s money and credit data are consistent with our view that the improvement in the data towards the end of last year was not the beginning of strong recovery. 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has euro-zone services inflation stopped falling? The stalling in services disinflation in recent months is largely due to technical factors and one-offs. If services prices continue to increase at their recent pace in month-on-month terms, the year... 22nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Carbon price not out of the woods yet This Update marks the launch of our EU carbon price forecasts and coverage, including an in-depth mini-series on key market and price dynamics, and an accompanying dashboard to track market drivers... 22nd February 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction weakness to resume Euro-zone construction output picked up in December, but remained well below last year’s peak. We expect it to drop again in 2024, in part due to a continued dismal performance by the sector in... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to use FX interventions more sparingly Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy... 13th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on track for May rate cut The Riksbank signalled unequivocally in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated. While a March rate cut is possible, particularly if the January... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
