Europe Economics Update Answering your questions on the German economy On Tuesday we held a Drop-in on the outlook for the German economy. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed and answers some of the questions that we received during the event. 2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key questions about EU trade defences against China The anti-dumping duties that the EU is likely to impose on Chinese imports in the coming months will have little macroeconomic impact. But more goods will be targeted in the next couple of years with... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer The continued decline in core inflation will make it difficult for Norges Bank to stick to its current guidance that it will leave interest rates unchanged until Q4. We suspect that the Bank will... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why are Spanish house prices rising? Spanish house prices have risen 5% over the last two years despite rising interest rates. The relative affordability of houses in Spain is the main reason that the market remains strong, but the... 25th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will worries about the euro stop the ECB from cutting? Movements in the exchange rate tend to have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation. So while the euro might weaken if monetary policy in the euro-zone and US were to diverge, we think it would... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium’s public debt a cause for concern? We think it is most likely that future governments bring down Belgium’s budget deficit sufficiently to put its debt on a sustainable trajectory. However, the risks are that the deficit is higher than... 17th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Early Easter boosted inflation only slightly in March The detailed breakdown of March’s euro-zone HICP data, released this morning, show that the early timing of Easter boosted services inflation by 0.1ppts. This effect was smaller than in previous years... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Middle East tensions not yet a major threat to inflation As things stand, higher oil prices will boost inflation in advanced economies by only a few tenths of a percentage point in the months ahead and we still expect this boost to fade as the year goes on... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss economy not as strong as first meets the eye The resilience of Swiss GDP over the past two years has been largely due to the merchanting sector, which buys and sells goods without them ever entering Switzerland. Excluding that sector, the... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 100bp this year The ECB’s decision to update its guidance suggests that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June is very likely. Christine Lagarde would understandably not commit to a path of rate cuts, but... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s public finances still a cause for concern After a period of relative calm, Italy’s fragile public finances are likely to come under the spotlight again before long. Budget deficits will be much higher than the latest government projections... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to continued weak activity The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that the drag on lending growth from tight monetary policy continued to ease. But the data remain consistent with broadly stagnant consumption and declines in... 9th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage data to watch ahead of the ECB’s June meeting ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Trump tariffs another risk for Europe The cost to the euro-zone of the universal tariff which Donald Trump has proposed, along with other likely spillovers from his trade policies, may result in a hit to the euro-zone economy of up to... 2nd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued February’s money and credit data suggest that the effect of tighter monetary policy has eased slightly. But the data are still very weak and we think that rate cuts later in the year will lead to only... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates faster than markets expect We think investors are underestimating the extent of rates cuts that the Riksbank will make this year. Policymakers are, rightly in our view, increasingly confident that inflation will soon return... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
