Europe Economics Update Prospects for German industry remain poor German industrial output rebounded in June and may well expand a bit over the coming year or so. But any recovery will be weak and the sector will remain in structural decline. 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourism to keep supporting southern outperformance Tourism in the euro-zone is likely to continue growing at a decent pace over the coming quarters due to rising real wages and increased capacity. This will be a particular boon to the southern... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update High household saving rate unlikely to plummet Tight monetary policy and low consumer confidence have pushed the euro-zone’s household saving rate up to unusually high levels. While interest rates are set to keep falling and confidence might... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy still spending NGEU money too slowly Italy has become quicker at spending NextGenerationEU (NGEU) funds over the past year but it is still likely to spend only around two-thirds of the total funds allocated to it unless the programme is... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Olympics no game changer for French economy Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP... 24th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Outlook for euro-zone retail sales has improved After a roller-coaster ride over the past couple of years, we think euro-zone retail sales are likely to rise gradually in the coming quarters. Consumption has recovered a long way following the... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update September cut likely but ECB in no rush after that Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates were in line with expectations. The overall tone was arguably slightly dovish... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to recovery in credit The Bank Lending Survey suggests that there was a pick-up in demand for bank loans in the second quarter particularly for residential mortgages and consumer credit. This is consistent with the... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update High migration to support strong GDP growth in Spain We think Spain’s economy will grow strongly over the next few years, substantially outperforming the euro-zone. This is partly due to strong domestic demand which has been supported by the rapid... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget deal only moderately encouraging The budget deal struck by the governing coalition in Germany reduces the risk of the country being forced into early elections. But it does little to address Germany’s structural problems, in part... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany no longer immune to budget trouble Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While... 1st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update First round results of France’s parliamentary election The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a... 30th June 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing French election risk for the euro The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
