Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 13th November 2024, 3:00PM GMT Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy? What bearing will political uncertainty have on its financial…
Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Germany’s early election The collapse of its coalition government, triggered by disagreement over fiscal policy, means Germany will probably have a CDU-led government by mid-2025. This may be more stable and functional than... 7th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bumper cut today, but smaller cuts to follow Today’s 50bp cut is likely to be the only one in the cycle for the Riksbank, and we expect it to cut by just 25bp at its next two meetings to take the policy rate to its “terminal” level of 2.25% in... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start cutting in early 2025 Alongside its decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, Norges Bank reiterated that it expects to remain on hold in December too. It is likely to start cutting in Q1 next year and we suspect... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone labour market is loosening Data released last week showed that the euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at a record low in September. But a broader assessment of the labour market suggests that it is cooling, and the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone investment growth to remain weak Euro-zone investment has been weak since the pandemic. And despite the recent downward revision to our ECB interest rate forecasts, we don’t think it will pick up substantially, given the sluggish... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update One step at a time for the Riksbank Despite the Riksbank reopening the door to a 50bp cut at its last meeting, we think it will proceed gradually and cut by 25bps next week to 3.0%. This is because the policy rate is approaching the... 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut Norway’s economy is struggling and inflation keeps falling faster than Norges Bank expects, yet the Bank has not started loosening policy. Next week we think it will open the door to a December rate... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update French residential property returns to lag the pack Softer rental prospects, less scope for yields to fall and lower income returns look set to weigh on French residential property returns compared to Germany, the UK and the US in the coming years. 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut deposit rate to just 1.5% In light of the worsening outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro-zone, we are making major downward revisions to our ECB interest rate forecast. We now think the Bank will implement... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending growth picking up only gradually New bank lending has risen recently as the interest rates on loans have begun to edge down, but it is still weak. While it will probably continue to increase gradually in the coming months, the ECB... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of a Trump victory on Europe A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and... 22nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deflation risk to hang over the SNB We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB history shows 50bp rate cut is possible Before the global financial crisis, 50bp interest rate cuts by the ECB were more common than 25bp reductions. Circumstances today are different, but if ECB policymakers are convinced that they need to... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update 25bp rate cuts by ECB most likely, but 50bp possible Christine Lagarde’s message in today’s ECB press conference was distinctly dovish and supports our view that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp at each of the next few meetings, at the very least... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
