Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB hikes by 50bp, hints at more to come The SNB’s 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, was in line with expectations but, more importantly, the Bank also raised its medium-term inflation forecast slightly, hinting that policymakers believe future... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Only one more hike to come from the Norges Bank Today’s 25bp rate increase by the Norges Bank, to 2.75%, takes it very close to the end of its tightening cycle. But we think the Bank is a long way from pivoting to loosening policy. 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our forecasts: slightly shallower recession We are nudging up our euro-zone GDP forecast slightly to reflect the small improvement in the economic data in recent months and an easing of the energy crisis. Nonetheless, we still think euro-zone... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tightening cycle not yet finished This morning’s 75bp increase in the Riksbank’s policy rate was in line with expectations, and both the press statement and Monetary Policy Report are consistent with our view that policymakers will... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation is nearing its peak We think that headline inflation in the euro-zone is nearing its peak and will begin to fall quite sharply early next year. But the core rate will probably peak a little later and decline more slowly. 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: budget hurdle cleared, but debt risks remain Italy’s draft 2023 budget confirms that, for now, the new right-wing government is committed to fiscal responsibility. As a result, the risk of turbulence in BTP markets has fallen, but it remains... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of recent German wage agreements Wage growth in Germany will be far lower next year than some headlines about recent wage deals suggest, but it will still rise above levels compatible with core inflation of 2%. 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Irish statistical quirks flattering EZ growth rate Euro-zone industrial production and GDP have been stronger than we had expected so far this year. Several factors have contributed to this, but one of them is the distortions to Ireland’s economic... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update If it happens at all, ECB QT will be very slow The ECB might start quantitative tightening next year but that’s not guaranteed, and even if it does so we doubt that it will make much of a dent in its government bond holdings. As a result, interest... 9th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why our euro-zone GDP forecast is below consensus Despite energy price caps and direct support for households, we think euro-zone private consumption will fall further than most anticipate in the coming months, and we expect investment and exports to... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Don’t miss the bigger picture in natural gas markets While front-month European natural gas prices have fallen sharply as concerns have eased around shortages this winter, longer-dated futures haven’t fallen by as much. That reflects how difficult it... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Goods price pressures still intense The recent easing of global supply chain problems could put some downward pressure on euro-zone goods inflation soon. But equipment shortages are still a major problem for manufacturers, while their... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle nearly over Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to slow the pace of rate hikes is the beginning of the end for its tightening cycle. But we don’t expect a pivot towards interest rate cuts next year. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (September) Money and lending growth accelerated in September, but the latest Bank Lending Survey revealed that there was a sharp drop in loan demand and that banks have become much more cautious about lending... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: moderate finance minister won’t save BTPs Italy’s new government may initially steer clear of major fiscal loosening, but it will have to provide some more support to cushion the blow from the energy crisis. Given Italy’s fiscal... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
