Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (September) Money and lending growth accelerated in September, but the latest Bank Lending Survey revealed that there was a sharp drop in loan demand and that banks have become much more cautious about lending... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: moderate finance minister won’t save BTPs Italy’s new government may initially steer clear of major fiscal loosening, but it will have to provide some more support to cushion the blow from the energy crisis. Given Italy’s fiscal... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Low Swiss inflation will keep pressure off SNB The low level of inflation in Switzerland compared to the euro-zone mainly reflects smaller contributions from energy and food. But core inflation is lower too, helped by the exchange rate and... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany €200bn fiscal shield won’t prevent recession Germany’s huge off-budget facility designed to compensate households and businesses for the increase in energy prices is bigger than measures announced elsewhere. However, we don’t expect actual... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB (like BoE) likely to re-start asset purchases soon The UK financial crisis is a self-inflicted wound, but the sell-off in gilts underlines that there is less fiscal room for manoeuvre than there was when policy rates were close to zero. We think the... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update France adds a pinch of prudence to its fiscal support The UK government has not been alone in announcing new fiscal measures in recent days. The French government’s plan to stabilise the budget deficit at 5% of GDP next year looks optimistic, given its... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from Italy’s general election With Italy’s general election scheduled to take place this weekend, this Update answers six key questions about what to expect in the days and months following the vote. In view of the wider interest... 22nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to follow Japan with FX intervention Direct FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro is not out of the question, but we think that it would take a much bigger depreciation of the single currency to force policymakers to act. 22nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB deposit rate to hit 3% next year The strength and breadth of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone, together with policymakers’ determination to bring inflation down, has prompted us to revise our interest rate forecasts up. We now... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More tightening to come from the Norges Bank Following today’s 50bp increase, we think the Norges Bank is most likely to hike by 50bp again in November. But its tightening cycle will soon be over, with the policy rate peaking at around 3%. 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB adds to crop of bumper rate rises The Swiss National Bank is likely to follow today’s 75bp rate rise with further increases at its next couple of meetings to keep a lid on inflationary pressure. But we still think investors have got... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hasn’t finished “front-loading" Even after raising its policy rate by 100bp today, the Riksbank signalled that its tightening cycle has some way to go. We expect another large hike at its final meeting of the year in November... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: reforms, not fiscal policy main post-election risk Italy’s right-wing coalition, which looks set to win the upcoming general election, will probably run slightly looser fiscal policy than Draghi’s government, but clashes with the EU similar to those... 15th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions on Europe’s energy crisis response European policymakers have been discussing how to tackle skyrocketing energy prices in the region to ease the financial pain for households and firms this winter. In this Update, we answer five key... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
