Energy Update Clean tech race to hit EU coal and gas demand The EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act announced last week aims to keep the manufacture of clean technologies within the EU and shows that global fracturing will take place within blocs as well as between... 24th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB focuses on inflation and raises rates This morning’s 50bp interest rate hike by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), to 1.50%, was in line with expectations and shows that, like the ECB and Fed, Swiss policymakers have not been distracted from... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank not done yet The Norges Bank’s 25bp rate hike today was accompanied by new verbal guidance that it is likely to raise rates further in May. Together with the new, higher interest rate forecast, this supports our... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB prioritising inflation fight Investors have taken today’s 50bp rate hike by the ECB as dovish, and the peak deposit rate now priced into markets is between 3% and 3.25%. We think the risks are skewed towards rates going higher... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account consistent with high-for-longer The account of the ECB’s last meeting is consistent with our view that the ECB will raise its deposit rate to 3.0% a fortnight today and continue hiking beyond that. In light of the data released... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong franc is not the key to low Swiss inflation In our view, the Chairman of the SNB has over-stated the role of the exchange rate in explaining why inflation has remained so comparatively low in Switzerland in the past two years. However... 1st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t rescue the economy The value of savings that households built up during the pandemic has been wiped out by inflation. Rising interest rates, together with a desire to rebuild the spending power of their savings, suggest... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession The effects of tighter monetary policy are clear in the money and credit data. Households and firms have continued to lock their money up in longer-term deposits which are less likely to be spent, and... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction output likely to keep falling The euro-zone’s Composite PMI was much stronger than expected in February, but it excludes the construction sector where prospects are weaker. Tighter financial conditions and softer demand in the... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Property slump leading Sweden into recession Swedish house prices have fallen 18% from their peak and could drop by a further 5% or so from here. This should not cause significant financial stability problems but will be a major drag on economic... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes confirm hawkish shift, focus on SEK The minutes of the Riksbank’s latest policy meeting show that the previously dovish Executive Board members have become less so, and that the new members are on the hawkish side. That reinforces our... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French wage growth to remain strong We think French wage inflation will remain much stronger than in the pre-pandemic period this year. This is not least because of the automatic adjustments to inflation of the minimum wage and... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s policy rate to rise above 3% The resilience of the economy and house prices, together with the strength of inflation, suggest that the Norges Bank will raise interest rates a bit further than we previously anticipated. We now... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
