Europe Economics Update Inflation concerns to delay the ECB The European Central Bank’s continued hawkishness suggests that euro-zone interest rates are now unlikely to fall before the third quarter of this year at the earliest. But we still think rates will... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian interest rates should have peaked As expected, the Swedish Riksbank kept interest rates on hold today while the Norges Bank raised rates to 5.50%. But while the markets apparently see little chance of rates falling in 2008, we expect... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s fiscal boost won’t offset the housing market downturn The latest news on the Spanish housing market supports our view that it is only a matter of time before house prices fall sharply with significant adverse effects on the wider economy. 18th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Berlusconi’s victory unlikely to ease Italy’s woes Silvio Berlusconi’s emphatic victory in the Italian general election ends two months of political uncertainty. But the deteriorating economic outlook and Berlusconi’s poor past stewardship of the... 15th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still talking tough After leaving interest rates unchanged for a tenth consecutive month today, the European Central Bank maintained a tough stance on inflation. But with the economy clearly slowing and the Bank hinting... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about German banks? The recent stream of write-downs by German banks might look like a worrying sign that the crisis in financial markets is set to have a devastating impact on the economy. But there are a number of... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slump in Spanish business surveys raises risk of recession The sharp fall in the latest indicators of Spanish business activity provides further evidence that the economic slowdown has spread well beyond the housing-related sectors. We maintain our view that... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank signals the possibility of a further rate rise The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold but signal that it expects to raise interest rates once more this year is likely to lead to a further strengthening of the krone. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB highlights weaker growth prospects After leaving interest rates on hold as expected (at a mid-point of 2.75%) the Swiss National Bank stressed that it expects economic activity to slow sharply this year. While strong price pressures... 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB highlights weaker growth prospects After leaving interest rates on hold as expected (at a mid-point of 2.75%) the Swiss National Bank stressed that it expects economic activity to slow sharply this year. While strong price pressures... 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals the possibility of a further rate rise The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold but signal that it expects to raise interest rates once more this year is likely to lead to a further strengthening of the krone. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to tackle strong euro by cutting rates, not intervening Jean-Claude Trichet’s expressions of concern over the strength of the euro yesterday have prompted speculation that the ECB might intervene directly in the currency markets to prevent the currency... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Zapatero's victory won't change the outlook for Spain Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s victory in Sunday’s general election paves the way for the implementation of a new fiscal package aimed at reviving Spain’s ailing economy. But on its own, this will not... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK to slip down housing table in 2008 The latest annual European Housing Report published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) echoed other evidence pointing to a general slowdown in the pace of activity and price... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB resists the pressure, for now The European Central Bank today poured cold water on suggestions that it might cut interest rates as soon as next month. But with the economy clearly slowing and the euro hitting new record highs, it... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
