Europe Economics Update ECB starts to soften While the European Central Bank declined to follow the Fed and Bank of England in cutting interest rates today, tentative signs of a softening in its previously stubbornly hawkish stance support our... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won't cushion the euro-zone Recent calls (most notably from IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn) for governments to use fiscal policy to support their economies beg the question of whether the euro-zone might benefit from such... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian political crisis another blow to slowing economy The latest political crisis in Italy is unlikely to have a major impact on the markets or the economy itself. Nonetheless, at a time when consumer confidence is already slumping, the additional... 25th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Outlook remains bleak for the Spanish housing market The latest Spanish house price data revealed that house prices rose solidly in Q4 last year. Nonetheless, other indicators of housing market activity are much less healthy and we continue to expect... 18th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hawkish for now, but next move will be down M. Trichet’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that the ECB is unlikely to follow other major central banks in cutting interest rates in the near future. However, a further slowdown... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update DAX outperformance no longer supported by economics The outperformance of the German equity market relative to its European neighbours like France no longer appears to be supported by the latest economic indicators. 9th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to squeeze household spending Spanish CPI inflation surged to 4.3% in December, its highest rate in over 12 years. The widespread system of indexing wage settlements to inflation in Spain should ultimately protect workers’ incomes... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian economic renaissance well and truly over 20th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals further rate hike still to come 19th December 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB likely to stay on hold for some time The SNB was never likely to shock markets with an interest rate hike today, particularly in the current environment of uncertainty. While the Bank seems to have maintained a slight tightening bias, we... 13th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Central banks ease the liquidity crisis, but problems go deeper 12th December 2007 · 1 min read