Europe Economics Update Spanish housing market downturn gathers pace The latest Spanish house price data provide further evidence that the housing market is set for a hard landing. We expect house price falls of around one third over the next few years to push the... 15th October 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates; more to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years was drivenby the recent events in global financial markets. But with the outlook for economic... 15th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone rescue plan won’t halt the slowdown The announcement of a co-ordinated framework to kick-start interbank lending in the euro-zone and boost banks’ tier one capital has helped equity markets and the euro to rally. But we doubt that these... 13th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European interest rates to fall much further Today’s co-ordinated interest rate cuts by European central banks clearly demonstrate a determination to provide short-term stability to financial markets. As economic conditions continue to... 8th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland’s latest measures no silver bullet for the economy The Icelandic authorities are fighting tooth and nail to restore confidence in the ailing economy and crumbling banking system. But it seems inevitable that the economy is set for a prolonged slowdown... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sharper euro-zone slowdown to push rates down to 2%. We have cut our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates in the euro-zone alongside those in other areas. But we still believe that the region’s relative lack of major economic imbalances point to... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s latest measures no silver bullet for the economy The Icelandic authorities are fighting tooth and nail to restore confidence in the ailing economy and crumbling banking system. But it seems inevitable that the economy is set for a prolonged slowdown... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German deposit guarantee a blow to government finances The German banking sector guarantee provides further confirmation that governments will do all that they can to protect households’ deposits. Although such measures should help to gradually restore... 6th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates before year-end A much more dovish tone from President Trichet today suggests that the Bank will cut interest rates before the year is out. Markets are coming around to our long-held view that rates will reach 3%... 2nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of the Irish bank guarantee Another wave of euro-zone government bailouts and a bank guarantee by the Irish government show that the credit crunch is beginning to take a greater hold on the region, raising the risk of a more... 30th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fortis bailout adds to markets' worries Yesterday’s €11.2bn government bailout of Fortis Bank, the largest euro-zone bank rescue sinc the credit crunch began, is the starkest evidence yet that the region’s banking system is not immune to... 29th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish boom turns to bust Ireland’s second quarter GDP figures confirmed the inevitable – that the collapse in the property sector has driven the wider economy into a recession. With house prices set to fall considerably... 25th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB set to cut rates next year The Swiss National Bank left its target range for three-month interest rates unchanged at a mid-point of 2.75%. But with the economic slowdown set to intensify and inflation on course to return to... 18th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB set to disappoint markets in the near term Interest rate expectations in the euro-zone have fallen sharply along with those elsewhere in recent weeks and are now pricing in a strong chance of an ECB rate cut this year. While we think that talk... 17th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political re-shuffle reduces chance of tax cuts The latest changes to the leadership of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) probably bode well for long-term structural reform of the economy. But they also further reduce the chance of near-term... 8th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still fretting over inflation outlook The European Central Bank’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that interest rate cuts are not yet on the agenda. But we still expect slowing activity and falling energy inflation to... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
