Europe Economics Update Lisbon Treaty rejection could highlight growing divergences A “no” vote in Thursday’s Irish referendum on the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon would put a spanner in the works of the Treaty’s ratification process. Just as importantly, it may add to concerns that the... 11th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals intention to hike The European Central Bank sent a strong signal today that it is likely to raise interest rates in July or August. But the Bank’s inflation phobia clearly increases the risks of a sharp slowdown in the... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update From bad to worse for Spanish consumers The recent run of bad news from Spain suggests that consumers’ wallets will remain firmly closed this year. While the Government’s fiscal package may provide households with a temporary boost in the... 3rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Growing troubles in the Baltics add to Sweden’s problems Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on... 3rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weaker currency prompts action by Danish central bank The unexpected rise in the Danmarks Nationalbank lending rate highlights the Bank’s commitment to keep the Danish krone tightly pegged to the euro. 16th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank lending rates add to diverging growth trends Recent divergences in borrowing rates across different countries suggest that the impact of the credit crunch on households and corporates may be hitting some euro-zone economies harder than others. 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate cuts still some months away The European Central Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold clearly reflects ongoing concerns about the inflation outlook. What’s more, with no sign of any softening in the Bank’s hawkish... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic outlook to keep Club Med bond spreads elevated The narrowing in the spread between Club Med and German government bond yields over the past month is an encouraging sign that things could be returning to normal in the euro-zone bond markets. But... 7th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sarkozy one year on In the year since his election, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has failed to live up to the French public’s great expectations, but he has achieved more than he is given credit for. Provided that he... 6th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro not about to collapse Speculation is growing that the euro’s extended rally against the US dollar and UK pound is finally at an end. But with the euro-zone economy in fundamentally better shape than those of the US and UK... 2nd May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation concerns to delay the ECB The European Central Bank’s continued hawkishness suggests that euro-zone interest rates are now unlikely to fall before the third quarter of this year at the earliest. But we still think rates will... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian interest rates should have peaked As expected, the Swedish Riksbank kept interest rates on hold today while the Norges Bank raised rates to 5.50%. But while the markets apparently see little chance of rates falling in 2008, we expect... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s fiscal boost won’t offset the housing market downturn The latest news on the Spanish housing market supports our view that it is only a matter of time before house prices fall sharply with significant adverse effects on the wider economy. 18th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Berlusconi’s victory unlikely to ease Italy’s woes Silvio Berlusconi’s emphatic victory in the Italian general election ends two months of political uncertainty. But the deteriorating economic outlook and Berlusconi’s poor past stewardship of the... 15th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still talking tough After leaving interest rates unchanged for a tenth consecutive month today, the European Central Bank maintained a tough stance on inflation. But with the economy clearly slowing and the Bank hinting... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about German banks? The recent stream of write-downs by German banks might look like a worrying sign that the crisis in financial markets is set to have a devastating impact on the economy. But there are a number of... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read