Europe Economics Update The biggest 'green shoot' is still missing While the latest OECD leading indicators brought further signs of the ‘green shoots’ of recovery in some euro-zone economies, Germany continues to suffer from the weakness in global trade. Until that... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Likely drop in Q1 spending not a sign of things to come Although euro-zone retail sales have dropped lately, other types of spending appear to have held up relatively well. Sadly, it seems unlikely that this trend lasted into the first quarter and we... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB disappoints on unconventional policies The ECB continues to lag behind. Although it delivered a 25bp interest rate cut today, the unconventional policy measures also announced look very timid compared to those already adopted by other... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB's survey points to slower pace of credit tightening The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggested that constraints on the supply of credit in the US have eased in the second quarter. (See our US Economics Update “Fed’s survey suggests credit... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish slump gathers pace in Q1 Initial estimates suggest that the Spanish economy may not have contracted quite as rapidly as some of the other major euro-zone economies in Q1. However, the housing market slump and the rapidly... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone money data suggest that the ECB’s liquidity provisions are doing nothing to boost broad money growth in the region. This will increase the pressure on the ECB to announce bold... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB: Taylor rule points to much bigger stimulus needed The Financial Times recently reported that, according to internal analysis prepared for the Fed’s last policy meeting, the ‘ideal’ interest rate in the US should be minus 5%. The analysis was based on... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting job losses increase the pain in Spain The Spanish unemployment rate rose at breakneck speed in Q1, suggesting that household spending is set to continue to plunge this year. Accordingly, we still think that the consensus forecast of a 2.9... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deteriorating fiscal position won't trigger a default The euro-zone 2008 budget deficit figures show that the health of the public finances in parts of the region has deteriorated at an alarming rate. Nonetheless, we think that the state of the public... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany making only slow progress on bank support The German Government’s plans for further measures to support the banking sector might sound broadly encouraging, particularly as banks there have so far not suffered as much as those elsewhere. But... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden likely to join the unconventional club soon The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to commit to a prolonged period of low interest rates to help kick start the economy is clearly a step in the right direction, but this alone may not be enough. We... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden likely to join the unconventional club soon The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to commit to a prolonged period of low interest rates to help kick start the economy is clearly a step in the right direction, but this alone may not be enough. We... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB moving towards unconventional policies Although the ECB’s 25bp interest rate cut was smaller than expected, the decision appears to have reflected a desire to maintain the corridor between the official rate and deposit rates rather than a... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish consumer slump shows no sign of ending February’s dreadful Spanish retail sales figures have dashed any hopes that the recent sharp falls in inflation and mortgage payments would lead household spending to stabilise at the start of the... 31st March 2009 · 1 min read
