Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may have troughed Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Spanish bank rescue package be enough? The announcement by the Spanish Government that it plans to set up a fund to provide capital to the ailing banking sector is certainly good news. But on its own, it will not be enough to prevent the... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank losses: halfway through? In its latest Financial Stability Review, published yesterday afternoon, the ECB has taken a less gloomy view on the potential losses that euro-zone banks still have to face relative to a previous IMF... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The Baltics remain a weight on Sweden's shoulders Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic... 10th June 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Baltics remain a weight on Sweden’s shoulders Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic... 10th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk appetite to fade as recovery disappoints Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone prospects improve by less than elsewhere The recent upward revision to our forecasts for the US and UK economies has prompted only a modest increase in our euro-zone forecast given less convincing signs of a recovery so far and a... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB does the bare minimum By leaving interest rates on hold and simply revealing the details of previously announced modest covered bond purchases, the ECB did the least that might have been expected today. Accordingly, the... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trade finance - still costly and hard to get The collapse in euro-zone exports in Q1 – and indeed in Q4 last year – was greater than would be expected from the decline in global demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the drying up of trade... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Growing troubles in the Baltics add to Sweden's problems Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on... 3rd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) April’s data revealed that there was no let-up in the downward trend in both broad money and lending growth in the euro-zone. This further supports our view that the ECB’s injections of short-term... 29th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t get too excited about the cycle’s twists and turns The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation in Ireland - a warning sign for the euro-zone The latest Irish inflation figures revealed that core inflation tumbled deeper into negative territory in April, suggesting that the chance of a prolonged bout of negative inflation is growing. This... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German consumer confidence not as weak as it looks Surveys of German consumer sentiment have diverged markedly lately, with the EC survey pointin to very sharp falls in spending but the GfK version broadly consistent with stagnation. We think that the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal boosts do not come for free Fiscal austerity is a thing of the past. However, in its just-released Regional Economic Outlook for Europe the IMF stressed that, without a credible and sustainable strategy to ensure fiscal... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German 'bad bank' plan brings little encouragement The ‘bad bank’ plan approved by the German Cabinet today goes a bit further towards solving banks’ problems than measures existing elsewhere in the euro-zone. But while the plan should improve banks’... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
