Europe Economics Update Decline in bond spreads may not go much further The recent decline in the spread between German and other euro-zone government bond yields is an encouraging sign that rising fiscal deficits in the region are unlikely to lead peripheral governments’... 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest euro-zone money figures revealed that lending growth continues to slow. Of course, other things, equal, the ECB’s recent 12-month liquidity injection should help to boost bank lending in... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong euro to add to near-term deflationary pressures The recent appreciation of the euro is yet to have had an impact on euro-zone import prices, due to the normal lags between these two variables. But it soon will. What’s more, with spare capacity... 21st July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s budget plan unlikely to comfort markets In its blueprint for the budget law (DPEF in Italian) – the Italian Government reiterated its commitment to fiscal consolidation. Because of Italy’s huge public debt, this is a formidable challenge... 20th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish housing market downturn far from over The latest housing market data show that the residential property market downturn is continuing to gather pace. With most valuation measures still suggesting that house prices remain well above their... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks – weathering the storm better than most Italian banks have so far coped with the financial crisis better than most of their European peers. While this has not prevented a slowdown in lending, the problems in the supply of credit seem... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB relying heavily on bank lending channel Despite weaker signs of recovery in the euro-zone than elsewhere, the ECB’s policy support remains considerably narrower than other central banks’. President Trichet suggested today that the Bank is... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank not ready to take the next step, yet Despite tentative signs of green shoots appearing, the Swedish Riksbank reduced interest rates to 0.25% and remains committed to keeping them at this rate for a prolonged period. But for now at least... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank not ready to take the next step, yet Despite tentative signs of green shoots appearing, the Swedish Riksbank reduced interest rates to 0.25% and remains committed to keeping them at this rate for a prolonged period. But for now at least... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest euro-zone money and credit figures revealed that, after having flattened off for some time, the monetary base increased again. The hope is that banks will feel encouraged to lend. But there... 30th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No sign of Ireland’s hangover fading. Since the onset of the downturn, the Irish economy has contracted significantly more sharply than other deficit economies such as the US and UK. Unfortunately, Ireland’s troubles appear far from over... 30th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German labour market shakeout is just beginning The German labour market held up relatively well at the start of the economic downturn, at least partly reflecting Government incentives for firms to retain workers for shorter hours. But the severity... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal rule is not as damaging as it seems The German Government’s recent introduction of a law requiring a balanced budget from 2016 has prompted much debate over just how harmful it might be. Our view is that, while the law might place... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swiss National Bank still pulling out all the stops The SNB’s pledge to go on purchasing large quantities of corporate bonds while providing generous liquidity to the banking sector and intervening ‘decisively’ in currency markets has left it among the... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss National Bank still pulling out all the stops The SNB’s pledge to go on purchasing large quantities of corporate bonds while providing generous liquidity to the banking sector and intervening ‘decisively’ in currency markets has left it among the... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may have troughed Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
