Europe Economics Update ECB does the bare minimum By leaving interest rates on hold and simply revealing the details of previously announced modest covered bond purchases, the ECB did the least that might have been expected today. Accordingly, the... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trade finance - still costly and hard to get The collapse in euro-zone exports in Q1 – and indeed in Q4 last year – was greater than would be expected from the decline in global demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the drying up of trade... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Growing troubles in the Baltics add to Sweden's problems Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on... 3rd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) April’s data revealed that there was no let-up in the downward trend in both broad money and lending growth in the euro-zone. This further supports our view that the ECB’s injections of short-term... 29th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t get too excited about the cycle’s twists and turns The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation in Ireland - a warning sign for the euro-zone The latest Irish inflation figures revealed that core inflation tumbled deeper into negative territory in April, suggesting that the chance of a prolonged bout of negative inflation is growing. This... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German consumer confidence not as weak as it looks Surveys of German consumer sentiment have diverged markedly lately, with the EC survey pointin to very sharp falls in spending but the GfK version broadly consistent with stagnation. We think that the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal boosts do not come for free Fiscal austerity is a thing of the past. However, in its just-released Regional Economic Outlook for Europe the IMF stressed that, without a credible and sustainable strategy to ensure fiscal... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German 'bad bank' plan brings little encouragement The ‘bad bank’ plan approved by the German Cabinet today goes a bit further towards solving banks’ problems than measures existing elsewhere in the euro-zone. But while the plan should improve banks’... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The biggest 'green shoot' is still missing While the latest OECD leading indicators brought further signs of the ‘green shoots’ of recovery in some euro-zone economies, Germany continues to suffer from the weakness in global trade. Until that... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Likely drop in Q1 spending not a sign of things to come Although euro-zone retail sales have dropped lately, other types of spending appear to have held up relatively well. Sadly, it seems unlikely that this trend lasted into the first quarter and we... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB disappoints on unconventional policies The ECB continues to lag behind. Although it delivered a 25bp interest rate cut today, the unconventional policy measures also announced look very timid compared to those already adopted by other... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB's survey points to slower pace of credit tightening The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggested that constraints on the supply of credit in the US have eased in the second quarter. (See our US Economics Update “Fed’s survey suggests credit... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish slump gathers pace in Q1 Initial estimates suggest that the Spanish economy may not have contracted quite as rapidly as some of the other major euro-zone economies in Q1. However, the housing market slump and the rapidly... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read