Europe Economics Update Greek economic woes grow as markets’ fears ease The fact that last week’s European Commission “accord” on Greece appears to have placated the markets temporarily is clearly encouraging for Greece. But with the Greek recession intensifying in Q4 and... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The pain in Spain remains Q4’s GDP figures confirmed that Spain is one of a dwindling group of economies still in recession. And with its economic imbalances still largely intact, a meaningful recovery remains a distant... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a Greek bail-out look like? Speculation that a bail-out of Greece may be imminent has moved the focus on to exactly what form a rescue package may take. The precise details of any bail-out might have important implications for... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is France next in the markets’ sights? As worries about the public finances spread throughout the euro-zone, France is the latest to edge on to the radar screens. Given a relatively low stock of debt and healthy economic outlook, its... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes still a very distant prospect The ECB is set to announce further plans to phase out unconventional policy support after its meeting next month. But with the Bank’s call for fiscal consolidation highlighting the downward pressure... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EC’s endorsement won’t fully relieve Greek worries The European Commission’s endorsement of the Greek Government’s plan to get its public finances under control is unlikely to relieve market concerns over Greece’s position altogether. 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece close to breaking point? Fears that the further rise in Greek bond yields over the last week has stretched the public finances to breaking point may be a little over-done. Nonetheless, Greece still faces an enormous challenge... 2nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French consumers leading the way France is one of few economies that seem to be experiencing a consumer revival. Sadly, fiscal tightening will prevent the recovery from gaining much momentum. But a fairly healthy household sector... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) December’s euro-zone money supply figures and January’s ECB Bank Lending Survey suggest that credit conditions in the region remain very tight, despite the ECB’s unlimited provision of liquidity to... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece really so much worse? The recent blow-out in Greek Government bond spreads seems to over-do the depth of its fiscal problems compared to those of other crisis economies like Ireland. But Greece has clearly lost the markets... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s Budget won’t dispel market worries The markets and credit rating agencies had been looking to yesterday’s budget for confirmation that the Portuguese Government is prepared to follow other fiscally strained euro-zone economies in... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a delay in German tax cuts prevent the recovery? Hints from the German Government that promised income tax cuts could be put off until at least next year make a convincing consumer revival seem even less likely. But we still expect a relatively... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices have further to fall The latest Spanish housing market data suggest that the residential property downturn continued to ease in the latter part of 2009. Nonetheless, we think that house prices still have much further to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds its line There were no surprises from the ECB today as it waits to judge the impact of previously announced plans to phase out its emergency lending to banks. But the Bank’s cautious tone on the economic... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the next Greece? Recent suggestions that Portugal may be “the next Greece” overlook the fact that Portugal’s economic and fiscal position is fundamentally healthier. Still, this month’s budget may need to reveal... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may struggle to prevent further franc gains The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
