Europe Economics Update Greece heads deeper into the mire The dramatic market reaction to the downgrade of Greece’s credit rating from A- to BBB+ by Fitch today partly reflected concerns that Greek banks may in the future be unable to use Government bonds as... 8th December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Finland on track for a pretty healthy recovery Finland has been hit particularly hard by the global economic downturn, faring almost as badly as Ireland. Nonetheless, the foundations are in place for a reasonably strong recovery, suggesting that... 8th December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starting to phase out unconventional support The ECB confirmed today that it is phasing out its emergency lending to banks, and perhaps a bit more quickly than had been expected. But the Bank is still downbeat about the economic outlook and we... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German banks’ troubles need not prevent recovery Concerns about German banks have increased, with the Bundesbank estimating that further hefty losses are to come and the Government warning of a worsening credit crunch. But, for the time being at... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) October’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting any pick-up in broad money and bank lending. 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Conditions in place for an Italian consumer recovery On the face of it, the latest news from the Italian household sector has been pretty disappointing and suggests that consumer spending may have fallen fairly sharply in Q3. Nonetheless, we think that... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s fiscal mess spells bad news for growth prospects The recent news on the Greek public finances has been terrible and suggests that the Government faces a huge task to get its fiscal house in order. Eventually, we expect pressure from the European... 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scandinavian housing market recovery unlikely to last The recent surge in Swedish and Norwegian property prices has fuelled concerns that both economies’ central banks may be forced to ratchet up interest rates in order to prevent housing market bubbles... 17th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Scandinavian housing market recovery unlikely to last The recent surge in Swedish and Norwegian property prices has fuelled concerns that both economies’ central banks may be forced to ratchet up interest rates in order to prevent housing market bubbles... 17th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB edging towards the exit The latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is edging slowly towards the policy stimulus exit. But the outstanding stock of central bank loans to ommercial banks will remain very high for some... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank becomes the third central bank to raise rates The widely anticipated decision by the Norges Bank to raise interest rates from 1.25% to 1.50% made it the third central bank to tighten monetary policy, after Israel and Australia, during the current... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) There are still few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provision of liquidity to banks and improving conditions in the financial markets are prompting any pick-up in eurozone broad money and bank lending. 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New tax cuts to support the German economy The new German Government’s economic programme includes additional tax cuts that make what was already a fairly generous fiscal package stand out as easily the largest in the euro-zone. Policy... 26th October 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank in no hurry to raise interest rates The Swedish Riksbank’s latest economic forecasts suggest that a tightening in monetary policy remains a long way off. This supports our view that interest rates are unlikely to rise as quickly or as... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank in no hurry to raise interest rates The Swedish Riksbank’s latest economic forecasts suggest that a tightening in monetary policy remains a long way off. This supports our view that interest rates are unlikely to rise as quickly or as... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Who will cope best with the strong euro? With global demand recovering pretty strongly, for at least a few quarters, the ongoing rise of the euro is unlikely to halt the external sector revival in its tracks. Nonetheless, we expect exporters... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read