Europe Economics Update Euro-zone break-up now more likely than not We have come to the conclusion that the balance of probabilities has swung against the euro-zone surviving in its present form. We have been brought to this point by our analysis of the problems of... 6th July 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank begins monetary policy tightening The widely predicted interest rate hike by the Swedish Riksbank from 0.25% to 0.5% made it thesecond western European central bank to tighten interest rates during the current cycle. But withother... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank begins monetary policy tightening The widely predicted interest rate hike by the Swedish Riksbank from 0.25% to 0.5% made it the second western European central bank to tighten interest rates during the current cycle. But with other... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) May’s euro-zone money supply and bank lending figures suggest that banks remain in no mood to lend, highlighting the need for the ECB to maintain its unconventional policy support measures. 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone austerity measures working? Recent data on the public finances suggest that the euro-zone peripheral governments are broadly on track to meet their ambitious fiscal targets for 2010. But these governments still face an enormous... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German consumers becoming more willing to spend? The recent sharp rise in German consumers’ willingness to buy brings hope that announced fiscal austerity measures have not so far led households to abandon spending plans. But the weakness of... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to scale back currency intervention The SNB’s hints that it will scale back its currency intervention suggest that the franc is set to appreciate more sharply and interbank interest rates should rise back towards the Bank’s target of 0... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to scale back currency intervention The SNB’s hints that it will scale back its currency intervention suggest that the franc is set to appreciate more sharply and interbank interest rates should rise back towards the Bank’s target of 0... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How far is Swiss intervention propping up the euro? Speculation that the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) currency intervention has stemmed the decline in the trade-weighted euro seems overplayed. But the SNB’s struggle to prevent the franc surging... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB maintains a dovish stance The ECB maintained a supportive stance today, treating signs of an economic recovery with caution. While the Bank seems unlikely to resort to outright quantitative easing for now, sterilised bond... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bold fiscal plans are still not enough While the recent flurry of austerity measures in Germany and elsewhere goes some way towards meeting deficit reduction targets, there is considerably more to be done. And with the cuts already... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain faces an uphill battle to ease markets’ fears The latest ratings downgrade of Spanish Government debt has triggered a new wave of concern in the markets. While Spain’s problems are far less acute than those of Greece, the Government still faces a... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium: The weak link of the North Fears that Belgium might be the ‘Greece of the North’ have not yet been picked up by the markets. (See Chart 1.) But with persisting weaknesses in the banking sector and a renewed bout of political... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank levy squabbles don’t bode well for fiscal union A bank levy along the lines of that recently proposed by the European Commission seems unlikely to alter banks’ behaviour or the state of European public finances dramatically. But the difficulty in... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will fiscal union save the euro-zone? The recent rescue package along with rulings made by the European Commission might be steps towards euro-zone fiscal integration that could feasibly benefit the region’s economies in the long run. But... 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What can we learn from Ireland? On the face of it, there are signs that Ireland may be about to exit recession. But any recovery will be down to its exceptionally strong trade links with non-euro-zone economies, rather than any... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
