Europe Economics Update Greece's problems still mounting Reports that Greece’s 2010 budget deficit is likely to have narrowed much less sharply than the Government had previously predicted emphasise that its problems are far from over. Greece will now come... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exports to Asia sustain the German recovery? With the resilience of German export growth partly reflecting persistently strong demand from Emerging Asia, some have argued that Germany might continue to grow rapidly as demand elsewhere in the... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland's fiscal squeeze unlikely to calm markets' nerves We doubt that next year’s €6bn fiscal squeeze will be enough to ensure that the Irish Government’s 2011 budget deficit goal will be met. This, combined with rising political uncertainty and surging... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to join the party After leaving interest rates on hold today, the ECB signalled that it is certainly not ready to follow the Fed into a renewed bout of unconventional policy support. Bolder action might yet be taken... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Ireland and Portugal about to turn to the EFSF? There are reasons to think that Portugal and Ireland will not follow Greece in seeking financial support in the very near future. But there are still major doubts over their ability to address their... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Budget will only buy time The Government finally passed its 2011 Budget in parliament yesterday. This may provide some relief after weeks of political tension but the episode has re-awakened market concerns. And while Portugal... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone default mechanism poses near-term risks Proposed arrangements for a permanent crisis resolution mechanism in the euro-zone threaten to have counter-productive effects on member countries’ fiscal consolidation efforts. 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian growth slows as political stalemate drags on In a sign of what may be to come for the euro-zone, the pace of the Belgian recovery has slowed. While a modest fiscal tightening will partly shield consumers, the political crisis and talk of the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the proposed Irish budget cuts be big enough? The Irish Government’s announcement that it will implement an additional fiscal squeeze worth €7.5bn (4.8% of GDP) over the next four years is a big step in the right direction. But we think that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest euro-zone broad money and credit data provide further signs that the problems in the banking sector may be easing. Nonetheless, credit growth remains very weak and supports our view that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to come Despite the krona’s recent strength, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates for the third time in four months. Although further hikes are inevitable, we expect the pace of tightening to ease... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to come Despite the krona’s recent strength, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates for the third time in four months. Although further hikes are inevitable, we expect the pace of tightening to ease... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why even Germany needs ECB support Some reporters have put recent hawkish remarks by Axel Weber, the Bundesbank’s ECB representative, down to the relative strength of the German economy. But even there, the economic outlook warrants... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Housing revival unlikely to drive a consumer recovery There are early signs of a revival in euro-zone housing markets. Even in the periphery, the housing market seems to have passed its worst, which on the face of it, may provide some relief to consumers... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of the French strike The French strike will probably have a smaller immediate effect on economic activity than the press might have you believe. However, it is the clearest sign yet that the euro-zone’s second largest... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
