Europe Economics Update Portuguese economy stumbles as political tensions resurge The renewed contraction in Portuguese GDP in Q4 last year underlines the fragility of the outlook for the economy. With political tensions rising and government bond yields uncomfortably high... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal remains on the frontline After a month of respite, the surge in Portuguese ten year government bond yields to new euro-era highs has reignited fears that Portugal may still need outside support. Even if Portugal isn’t forced... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank debt plans won’t solve Ireland’s fiscal problems Speculation is growing that the next Irish Government will attempt to restructure some of the nationalised banks’ senior debt. But such a move, while no doubt popular with taxpayers, would do little... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal position remains deeply worrying On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeps its finger off the trigger The lack of a further step-up in the ECB’s anti-inflation rhetoric today supports our view that the Bank is unlikely to tighten policy in the near future. Nonetheless, its generally hawkish stance... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Ireland's bail-out under threat? Ireland’s next Government will push for better terms on its existing bail-out package, but it will enter discussions in a weak bargaining position. Even if it does gain major concessions there is a... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grand bargain will be no cheap way out of the crisis Expectations are growing that euro-zone leaders will soon agree to a series of new measures - collectively labelled the “grand bargain” - to bolster the policies already in place to deal with the... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data continue to suggest that inflationary pressures in the region as a whole remain subdued, adding to evidence that the recent sharp rise in the headline CPI... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Most of the peripheral euro-zone economies appear to have made some inroads into their large budget deficits last year, with Spain taking the lead. 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish bank plans unlikely to be a game changer News that the Spanish Government will force the troubled banks to boost their capital ratios is an encouraging sign that it is trying to tackle the economy’s fundamental problems. But we doubt that... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland's political turmoil not as disastrous as it seems Ireland’s coming general election provides hope that months of political uncertainty may be about to end. But whatever the outcome, the economy and public finances will remain in a precarious state. 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal's presidential election add fuel to the fire? Portugal has survived its first market tests of 2011 and resisted pressure to accept outside support. But with government bond yields still at very high levels, the Government’s struggle to go without... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB remains reluctant to do more After leaving interest rates on hold, the ECB provided no indication that it is about to respond to the ongoing euro-zone fiscal crisis by adopting bolder unconventional policy measures. 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal - the end of Act 1? It now seems a matter of when, rather than if, Portugal will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting some form of European/IMF bail-out. But will this signal the beginning of the end of the euro-zone... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland still faces major challenges The joke about the differences between Iceland and Ireland (one letter and about six months) might provide some encouragement to the latter in the light of recent signs that Iceland is turning the... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland still faces major challenges The joke about the differences between Iceland and Ireland (one letter and about six months) might provide some encouragement to the latter in the light of recent signs that Iceland is turning the... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
