Europe Economics Update Euro-zone default mechanism poses near-term risks Proposed arrangements for a permanent crisis resolution mechanism in the euro-zone threaten to have counter-productive effects on member countries’ fiscal consolidation efforts. 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian growth slows as political stalemate drags on In a sign of what may be to come for the euro-zone, the pace of the Belgian recovery has slowed. While a modest fiscal tightening will partly shield consumers, the political crisis and talk of the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the proposed Irish budget cuts be big enough? The Irish Government’s announcement that it will implement an additional fiscal squeeze worth €7.5bn (4.8% of GDP) over the next four years is a big step in the right direction. But we think that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest euro-zone broad money and credit data provide further signs that the problems in the banking sector may be easing. Nonetheless, credit growth remains very weak and supports our view that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to come Despite the krona’s recent strength, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates for the third time in four months. Although further hikes are inevitable, we expect the pace of tightening to ease... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to come Despite the krona’s recent strength, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates for the third time in four months. Although further hikes are inevitable, we expect the pace of tightening to ease... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why even Germany needs ECB support Some reporters have put recent hawkish remarks by Axel Weber, the Bundesbank’s ECB representative, down to the relative strength of the German economy. But even there, the economic outlook warrants... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Housing revival unlikely to drive a consumer recovery There are early signs of a revival in euro-zone housing markets. Even in the periphery, the housing market seems to have passed its worst, which on the face of it, may provide some relief to consumers... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of the French strike The French strike will probably have a smaller immediate effect on economic activity than the press might have you believe. However, it is the clearest sign yet that the euro-zone’s second largest... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian industrial sector defying gravity Recent news from Italy suggests that the industrial recovery is going from strength to strength. Nonetheless, we doubt that this marks the start of an Italian renaissance. Indeed, there are several... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB not yet ready to increase its support The ECB maintained a fairly dovish tone today, pledging continued support for commercial banks and possibly more peripheral government bond purchases. But there was little to suggest that the Bank... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk of a Spanish double-dip continues to grow The latest composite PMI business survey figures have added to evidence that the Spanish economy may have re-entered recession. This supports our view that Spain is set for a prolonged period of... 5th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek Budget still leaves plenty to do The fact that the Greek Government has announced that it expects to reduce its budget deficit by more than the IMF and EC have demanded in 2010 and 2011 is an indication of the great strides that it... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland takes a small step back from the brink The Irish Government’s announcement on the costs of rescuing its banks appears to have provided the markets with some reassurance for now. But with the banking sector still fragile and the economy... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France and Portugal struggle to apply fiscal squeeze Recent developments in France and Portugal confirm that both are struggling to implement measures to ensure a sustained reduction in public borrowing. But market pressures will force Portugal to act... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro-zone be the biggest loser in a currency war? If the world is about to engage in a currency war, the euro-zone’s arsenal looks poorly stocked. 29th September 2010 · 1 min read