Europe Economics Update Will the ECB ride to the rescue? Recent comments from ECB President Trichet have brought hope that the Bank might step up its bond purchases to support peripheral markets. But to make any real difference, the ECB would probably need... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish bailout details provide markets with little comfort The further details of the Irish bailout package and the euro-zone’s permanent crisis resolution mechanism confirm that Germany and other European hardliners are in no mood to make major concessions... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest money and credit figures show that annual lending growth is continuing to pick up. Nonetheless, with the periphery’s banks still in a vulnerable position, the ECB’s plan for a gradual... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland's fiscal plans will do little to ease markets' fears The recent increase in political uncertainty and rising concerns about banks’ near-term funding needs have only added to Ireland’s problems. Indeed, the further details on the shape of the fiscal... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Spain be the undoing of the euro-zone? With Ireland finally accepting a bailout, attention has turned to who might be next. Spain’s position is far less precarious, but there are some worrying similarities. And given the economy’s size... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland still has a mountain to climb News that Ireland has formally requested financial support has prompted a further drop in Irish bond yields and a small rise in the euro. But Ireland still faces a daunting set of fiscal and economic... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal inevitably follow Ireland? With Ireland on the brink of accepting some kind of bail-out, fears of contagion have intensified. While Portugal is clearly the next in line, it is in a better position than Ireland, which means that... 19th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Support would not solve all Ireland's problems It seems increasingly likely that Ireland may soon bow to pressure and ask for financial support. But while such an outcome may temporarily settle the markets, the fundamental picture will remain... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can anything save Ireland from a Greek tragedy? The further rise in Irish bond yields over recent days has intensified speculation that Ireland will soon be forced to follow Greece in turning to international financial support. Is there anything... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's problems still mounting Reports that Greece’s 2010 budget deficit is likely to have narrowed much less sharply than the Government had previously predicted emphasise that its problems are far from over. Greece will now come... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exports to Asia sustain the German recovery? With the resilience of German export growth partly reflecting persistently strong demand from Emerging Asia, some have argued that Germany might continue to grow rapidly as demand elsewhere in the... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland's fiscal squeeze unlikely to calm markets' nerves We doubt that next year’s €6bn fiscal squeeze will be enough to ensure that the Irish Government’s 2011 budget deficit goal will be met. This, combined with rising political uncertainty and surging... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to join the party After leaving interest rates on hold today, the ECB signalled that it is certainly not ready to follow the Fed into a renewed bout of unconventional policy support. Bolder action might yet be taken... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Ireland and Portugal about to turn to the EFSF? There are reasons to think that Portugal and Ireland will not follow Greece in seeking financial support in the very near future. But there are still major doubts over their ability to address their... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Budget will only buy time The Government finally passed its 2011 Budget in parliament yesterday. This may provide some relief after weeks of political tension but the episode has re-awakened market concerns. And while Portugal... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read