Europe Economics Update ECB trying to hold back the tide The European Central Bank’s continued opposition to any form of sovereign debt restructuring in the euro-zone remains a major short-term obstacle to plans for a Greek debt “rollover”. But the ECB... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic clouds still hanging over Iceland The dust clouds may have cleared but economic gloom continues to hang over Iceland. While the economy returned to growth in Q1, conditions for consumers remain grim and large risks remain over plans... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Economic clouds still hanging over Iceland The dust clouds may have cleared but economic gloom continues to hang over Iceland. While the economy returned to growth in Q1, conditions for consumers remain grim and large risks remain over plans... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out 2 will merely delay the inevitable A second Greek bail-out package, perhaps involving some form of voluntary debt rescheduling, won’t address Greece’s fundamental problems and won’t prevent a major restructuring in the future. 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) While Spain has made good progress in reducing its central government budget deficit this year, its growing regional deficits are a cause for concern. Meanwhile, the Greek and Irish deficits are still... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest data show that euro-zone money and credit growth remain subdued. Of course, with headline inflation well above target, this won’t stop the ECB from raising interest rates again over the... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would banks cope with a Greek debt "reprofiling"? Some form of Greek debt rescheduling would certainly have rather less severe implications for the euro-zone’s banks than a “hard” default. Nonetheless, were the process badly handled, it could still... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the domino effect hit Belgium? With fears that Spain’s “decoupling” from Greece, Ireland and Portugal may prove temporary, markets may become less sanguine about Belgium than they have recently been. With the political situation... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland also need a second bail-out? Ireland appears to be under no imminent pressure to follow Greece and seek a bigger bail-out package. Nonetheless, we still think that it may eventually need to gain additional financial support from... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: are cracks starting to show? For now, markets continue to give Spain the benefit of the doubt. But with signs that its modest economic recovery will soon lose momentum and increasing concerns that the regional governments will... 18th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Portugal push away debt restructuring fears? Portugal’s bail-out has finally been given the green light. While a cash crisis has been avoided, there are reasons to think that Portugal may struggle to push away fears that it will eventually need... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Greece? European officials have bowed to the inevitable and accepted the need to extend Greece’s bail-out package. But we still think that it is inevitable that Greece will have to restructure its debts at... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its stance slightly Having kept interest rates unchanged at 1.25% as expected, President Trichet’s comments in the press conference appeared to provide tentative support to the view that the ECB is not about to embark on... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Official public finances data for 2010 confirmed that while the core economies are making clear progress to rein in their budget deficits, the periphery’s fiscal problems are far from over. 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeping its options open Having raised interest rates from 1.0% to 1.25% as expected, the ECB kept its options open over the likely size and timing of future interest rate increases. For now, we still think that the Bank will... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal succumbs. Now what? Now that Portugal has succumbed to the inevitable, the key question is whether the latest euro-zone bail-out finally draws a line under the peripheral economies’ problems or marks the start of a new... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read