Europe Economics Update Draghi makes a dovish start, but won’t up bond purchases The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% suggests that it is starting to acknowledge the effects of the region’s debt crisis on the wider economy. But, for now at least... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek referendum episode has let the cat out of the bag However the Greek referendum episode is ultimately concluded, the fact that euro-zone leaders have for the first time openly acknowledged that a country can leave the single currency is a potentially... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Greece? The chances of Greece holding a referendum appear to be diminishing and a general election seems likely before long, even if the Government wins Friday’s confidence vote. But whatever the precise... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek referendum throws whole rescue plan into doubt The Greek government’s surprise decision to hold a referendum on the latest euro-zone rescue package has clearly increased the risks of a bigger and disorderly default on Greek debt and, ultimately... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Further signs that some of the region’s most troubled economies are struggling to meet their budget deficit goals, coupled with growing evidence that the euro-zone is entering a new recession... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese whispers alone won't save the euro Despite yet another round of speculation suggesting that China is about to ride to the rescue of the euro-zone, Europe will still have to solve its own problems. Meaningful Chinese support would... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest monetary data suggest that stresses in the banking sector are growing. With the new bank recapitalisation plans unlikely to restore stability to the banking sector, we expect credit... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone plans more peashooter than bazooka The plans announced by euro-zone policymakers overnight look more like a peashooter than the “bazooka” previously promised to tackle the region’s problems. We have not altered our view that the crisis... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro still likely to slide further The dollar’s recovery against the euro may have paused but the outlook for the European single currency remains poor. The relative prospects for monetary policy and the risks of a renewed escalation... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB supports banks, but drags heels on rates The ECB today opted to focus on unconventional rather than conventional monetary policy measures, leaving interest rates on hold but substantially increasing its support for the banking sector. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek budget does not eliminate near-term default risks New fiscal measures announced by the Greek Government may have reduced the risks of an imminent disorderly default. But policymakers still face a battle to agree a deal to cover Greece’s financing... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent news shows that many of the euro-zone’s fiscally-challenged economies are broadly on track to meet their 2011 budget deficit goals. Nonetheless, we continue to think that several of the region... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Proposed EFSF expansion is not all that it appears Emerging details about the recent proposal to supersize the euro-zone’s bail-out fund suggest that, at best, the plan is simply to use existing funds more imaginatively. Note that even this proposal... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Ireland’s recovery provide hope for Southern Europe? The news that Ireland expanded robustly in the first half of the year, might suggest that the Southern European economies may reap similar rewards if they stick with plans to cut their budget deficits... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Despite renewed hopes that euro-zone policymakers will adopt radical measures to solve the region’s debt crisis, we expect stresses in the banking sector to remain, increasing the chances of the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
