Europe Economics Update ECB takes a hard line After hiking interest rates to 1.5% as expected, the ECB took a hard line today on both conventional policy and the prospect of Greek debt restructuring. We think that it will eventually soften on... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to come The Swedish Riksbank once again raised interest rates and reiterated that it expects more to come. While we expect further hikes in the short term, we think that the pace of monetary tightening will... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to come The Swedish Riksbank once again raised interest rates and reiterated that it expects more to come.While we expect further hikes in the short term, we think that the pace of monetary tightening willbe... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hidden costs could hinder Portugal’s fiscal efforts The Portuguese government’s latest efforts to implement extra fiscal measures to ensure it meets its budget deficit target are encouraging. But even if the Government manages to push through the huge... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest data show that euro-zone money and credit growth remain subdued, supporting the view that CPI inflation will fall below the ECB’s target as the boost from energy and food subsides. While a... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) While plans for a Greek debt roll-over and a second bail-out should ease immediate default concerns and funding pressures, Greece is still struggling to rein in its budget deficit, highlighting the... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek disaster averted, for now at least The fact that the Greek parliament has passed the Government’s medium-term fiscal plan clearly reduces the chances of a near-term disaster, but the country remains in a precarious position. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank roll-over plan a small step forward for Greece The French plan for banks to roll over a significant chunk of their maturing Greek government debt could significantly reduce Greece’s near-term funding pressures. But we doubt that the roll-over plan... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland and Portugal roll over their debt too? The Irish and Portuguese public finances are not in as precarious a position as those of Greece, but we think that there is a strong chance that both economies will eventually have to follow in Greece... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece on the brink Crunch time appears to be rapidly approaching for Greece. While an additional bail-out package may stave off near-term disaster, a major debt restructuring seems inevitable at some point and Greece’s... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB strikes a dovish tone As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB strikes a dovish tone As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro's unwanted strength heightens break-up dangers Our expectation that the euro would fall against the US dollar as the fiscal crisis deepened has not been borne out and we now expect the euro to stay higher for longer. But this unwanted strength... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Where would a second bail-out leave Greece? European policymakers will hope that a second bail-out package will provide Greece with more time to show that its fiscal and structural reforms are working. But we are far from convinced and still... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How far is Spain from a tipping point? Recent developments suggest that Spain may have started to recouple with the likes of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Over the coming months, Spain is likely to face a number of tricky hurdles and could... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals July rate hike & stands firm on Greek default ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet struck a hard line on the euro-zone’s debt crisis today by both signalling an interest rate hike in July and again ruling out a debt restructuring for Greece. But on... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read