Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recent news from Spain suggests that the Government may be falling further behind its fiscal targets, but the other troubled euro-zone governments have made a better start to the year. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest monetary data have confirmed that the ECB’s generous lending is boosting the broad money supply and perhaps even stimulating government bond purchases. But, for now at least, lending to... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s support won’t rescue the Swiss economy The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s support won’t rescue the Swiss economy The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy remains in troubled waters The markets may currently be giving Italy the benefit of the doubt, but recent data have supported our gloomy view of the economic outlook. We think it may only be a matter of time before Italy is... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt deal not the end of Greece’s problems The successful Greek debt exchange should ensure that the second bail-out package is formally signed off before long, but it leaves Greek government debt still at an unsustainably high level. 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB puts the ball in governments’ court The ECB struck a downbeat tone at its policy meeting today. But having recently provided massive long-term loans to the banking sector, it is not prepared to offer more support before it has taken... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update LTROs won't solve the euro-zone crisis The ECB’s second three-year loan operation will provide further vital support for the euro-zone’s beleaguered banking sector. But hopes that the funds will also solve the fiscal crisis and breathe... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will German consumer optimism cause a spending revival? The recent rise in German consumer confidence looks very encouraging at face value. But with wage and employment growth already slowing, we doubt that it will be sustained. And in the meantime, fears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending is boosting the broad money supply. However, lending to firms and consumers remains very weak and the bank lending survey... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece still in a "debt trap" Greece’s bail-out reduces the risk of an imminent default, but a closer look at the economic and fiscal projections that the package is based on adds to evidence that the deal is a fudge. The only way... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek rescue deal has shallow foundations The new rescue deal for Greece should buy the euro-zone a bit of time. But we think that the package is based on unrealistic economic assumptions and will be no more successful than the first deal... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Worse to come for Spain Recent economic indicators from Spain suggest that it is currently faring rather better than the other troubled southern euro-zone economies. But Spain’s economic fundamentals look grim. We expect the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
