Europe Economics Update Euro-zone plans more peashooter than bazooka The plans announced by euro-zone policymakers overnight look more like a peashooter than the “bazooka” previously promised to tackle the region’s problems. We have not altered our view that the crisis... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro still likely to slide further The dollar’s recovery against the euro may have paused but the outlook for the European single currency remains poor. The relative prospects for monetary policy and the risks of a renewed escalation... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB supports banks, but drags heels on rates The ECB today opted to focus on unconventional rather than conventional monetary policy measures, leaving interest rates on hold but substantially increasing its support for the banking sector. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek budget does not eliminate near-term default risks New fiscal measures announced by the Greek Government may have reduced the risks of an imminent disorderly default. But policymakers still face a battle to agree a deal to cover Greece’s financing... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent news shows that many of the euro-zone’s fiscally-challenged economies are broadly on track to meet their 2011 budget deficit goals. Nonetheless, we continue to think that several of the region... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Proposed EFSF expansion is not all that it appears Emerging details about the recent proposal to supersize the euro-zone’s bail-out fund suggest that, at best, the plan is simply to use existing funds more imaginatively. Note that even this proposal... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Ireland’s recovery provide hope for Southern Europe? The news that Ireland expanded robustly in the first half of the year, might suggest that the Southern European economies may reap similar rewards if they stick with plans to cut their budget deficits... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Despite renewed hopes that euro-zone policymakers will adopt radical measures to solve the region’s debt crisis, we expect stresses in the banking sector to remain, increasing the chances of the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New rescue plans are unlikely to save the euro Talk of radical new measures to bail out highly indebted euro-zone governments and shore up banks throughout the region suggests that policymakers might finally be considering the bold steps that... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s second bail-out dead and buried? On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deepening debt crisis points to new recession The debt crisis in the euro-zone has escalated rapidly over recent months and could now come to a head sooner than we had previously anticipated. This is likely to have severe near- to medium-term... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB paving the way for rate cuts After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the ECB struck a downbeat tone regarding the economic outlook and acknowledged that risks to price stability are no longer on the upside, supporting... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Concerns about Italy to resurface The Italian Government’s recent indecision over the form of its latest fiscal package underlines the view that it is unlikely to implement the tough and unpopular measures needed to get the public... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece at risk of an imminent default? In the near term, Greece may continue to receive EU/IMF support and grudgingly meet the terms of its bail-out, despite the ongoing problems surrounding the second rescue package. But it is virtually... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read