Europe Economics Update Could Finland be the catalyst for a euro-zone break up? Finland’s continued hardline stance on the provision of support to the peripheral economies increases the risk that the euro-zone will not implement the measures needed to maintain the existing... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the weaker euro rescue Ireland? Ireland’s extraordinarily open economy and strong trade links outside the euro-zone mean that it stands to gain more than other peripheral economies from the depreciation of the euro. But the currency... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish sovereign bail-out still looks very likely The measures announced at last night’s finance ministers’ meeting to support Spain don’t alter our view that the country will require a full sovereign bail-out in the fairly near future. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Portugal the ‘Odd Man Out’? Government bond yields in Portugal have trended lower throughout this year. This contrasts with countries such as Spain and Italy, which have seen increases in recent months. We think this is because... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB cuts rates but signals inability to do more July’s ECB interest rate cut did little to alter the euro-zone’s bleak economic outlook, particularly as the Bank indicated that it is unlikely to pursue any bolder unconventional measures for now. 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French Budget scotches growth lobby François Hollande’s supplementary budget is in stark contrast to his vow to favour growth over austerity. With market pressures and a weakening economic outlook forcing even France to pursue budget... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece finance itself after a euro-zone exit? We have long argued that it may be in the best interests of Greece to leave the euro-zone. And while some commentators have suggested that Greece would benefit from waiting until it can fully cover... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are not yet having the desired effect. While money supply growth is picking up, bank lending to the private sector remains... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price will not boost euro-zone growth The recent sharp fall in the oil price has prompted us to revise down our euro-zone CPI inflation forecast for this year and next. But this will not prevent the region from falling into a deep... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: A €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ is not high enough The €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ for Spanish banks may provide a smaller ‘safety margin’ than the recent independent audits suggested and won’t address the country’s broader economic and fiscal problems... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Basic divisions will hinder Summit progress Together, the radical plans that are up for discussion at this week’s Summit could be the key to the euro-zone’s survival. But with Germany opposed to providing more funds without central budget... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy need a bail-out too? Italy may have recently avoided the spotlight thanks to developments in Greece and Spain, but its dreadful debt dynamics mean that it remains a ticking time-bomb for the euro-zone. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Latest bazooka may lack ammunition Plans for the euro-zone bail-out fund to purchase sovereign debt look unlikely to have a lasting effect on governments’ borrowing costs unless accompanied by a significant increase in firepower. 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain moving quickly towards a sovereign bail-out The recent further rise in Spanish government bond yields underlines the fact that the banking bailout will not address the country’s broader fiscal problems. A sovereign bail-out is all but... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election results do not eliminate exit risks New Democracy’s narrow victory in Sunday’s general election will ease concerns of an imminent and disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. But it remains unlikely that euro-zone policymakers will... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
