Europe Economics Update ECB on hold despite prospect of long recession At its press conference today, the ECB again refused to make any firm commitments about the amount of support that it might be prepared to offer the Spanish Government if it requested a bailout. And... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative bank rates won't depress the Swiss franc for long Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt buyback won't transform Greece's fiscal outlook While early signs indicate that Greece’s debt buyback will be a success, it will not bring an end to the country’s fiscal crisis. 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Negative bank rates won’t depress the Swiss franc for long Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Although Greece, Portugal and Ireland are making some fiscal progress, Italy and Spain are still struggling to cut their budget deficits 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data revealed a further small acceleration in the growth of money and bank lending in the region. But weak credit growth remains a major constraint on economic activity... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal delays the day of reckoning Euro-zone policymakers have found a bit more money down the back of the sofa to buy another sticking plaster for Greece. But the relatively easy options are running out fast. 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Cyprus be the first domino to fall? The news that Cyprus is about to run out of money has given a dangerous new angle to the euro-zone crisis. The economy is so small that a bail-out would be very cheap, but the Government will be... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French downgrade highlights troubles in the core The direct effect of the latest downgrade of France should be modest. But it threatens to deepen the political rift between France and Germany, making policies to tackle the euro-zone’s debt crisis... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will Greece's extra financing needs be met? We suspect that policymakers may find a way to meet the estimated increase in Greece’s borrowing needs for the remainder of its bail-out deal without providing bigger loans. But if the economic... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi provides very little comfort While the ECB apparently stands ready to buy peripheral governments’ bonds, President Draghi gave little assurance today about when it might start or how many it might purchase. He also ruled out... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What's next for Greece? The passing of the omnibus bill by Parliament last night means that Greece has taken a decisive step towards gaining the next loan tranche of its latest bail-out. But although this has reduced the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment has much further to rise We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Crunch time looms for Greece Over the next couple of crucial weeks, we suspect that Greek and euro-zone policymakers will hatch a deal to prevent, at least temporarily, the collapse of Greece’s rescue package. But as always... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French outlook darkens as consumers cut back Recent falls in French consumer spending are a blow to the economy, which has been heavily reliant on households for growth in the past. With unemployment near a record high, banks cutting back their... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest Spanish public finances data, which show that Spain is struggling to meet its budget deficit targets, will increase the pressure on the Government to request a bail-out. 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
