Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will continue to push back rate hikes The Norges Bank’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged reflects the dilemma facing the Bank as a strong currency prevents it from hiking rates to stem a housing boom. These countervailing... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What’s left in the ECB toolbox for SMEs? Reviving lending to small and medium-sized enterprises is crucial for the euro-zone’s prospects given the importance of these firms to the region, particularly in the periphery. Indeed, ECB President... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is austerity working after all? Despite concerns that austerity is not working in the euro-zone, most of the region’s peripheral economies managed to reduce their budget deficits in 2012. But fiscal progress has been slower than... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy really on autopilot? We are not fully convinced by the argument espoused by Mario Draghi that Italian fiscal policy is on “automatic pilot” and that the budget deficit will narrow regardless of who eventually takes power... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No sign of respite for the Portuguese economy The detailed Portuguese GDP release for Q4 confirmed that the economy is in a worryingly deep and broad-based recession. The lack of evidence that the downturn is easing, coupled with voters’ growing... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hints at limited support at best While some members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council voted for an interest rate cut today, the majority still seems unconvinced that this would do any good. What’s more, the Bank... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland and Portugal need OMTs? Ireland and Portugal’s relative success in achieving fiscal targets and regaining access to financial markets has raised hopes about the sustainability of their public finances, particularly after... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Italy? More than a week after the general election, the political situation in Italy remains as uncertain as ever. With potentially months of political and economic deadlock ahead, we continue to expect... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak Dutch economy adds to troubles in the core Recent data from the Netherlands have added to evidence from France that the euro-zone’s economic problems go well beyond the region’s periphery. We expect the Dutch Government’s opposition to... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty to push Italy deeper into recession The Italian economy’s dire end to 2012, combined with the growing likelihood of a long period of political deadlock, supports our long-held view that the consensus outlook for Italy is too optimistic... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain may still be the first to need OMTs While the euro-zone spotlight has recently switched to Italy, the latest economic news from Spain suggests that it might still be first to require the support of the ECB’s bond-buying programme. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the Italian election disabled the ECB’s bazooka? The renewed rise in Italian and other government bond yields following the inconclusive result of the Italian general election has raised questions over the continued effectiveness of the European... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The latest euro-zone monetary data have brought further signs of an improvement in financial market conditions. However, lending to the private sector continued to contract and seems unlikely to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb. 13) Greece, Ireland and Portugal continued to make solid fiscal progress at the beginning of 2013. But Italy and Spain are likely to have missed their fiscal goals for 2012. 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway’s housing boom won’t force rates higher Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political deadlock could push Italy towards a bail-out The inconclusive outcome of the Italian election looks set to prompt a renewed bout of market pressure which may eventually force Italy to request a support package from the euro-zone. 26th February 2013 · 1 min read