Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) While positive on the surface, the acceleration in money supply growth conceals several worrying dynamics, not least another fall in lending to firms. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece has continued to make good fiscal progress, but the other southern euro-zone economies are not faring quite as well. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account data not as encouraging as it seems At face value, the ongoing improvement in the euro-zone’s current account position, which has been to a large part down to developments in the peripheral economies, is a sign that the structural... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the equity rally boost household spending? We doubt that the recent equity market rally, combined with the ongoing downward trend in CPI inflation, will prompt a sustained recovery in euro-zone household spending. Indeed, in the periphery... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French wealth tax adds to fears for economy The news that some wealthy French households were taxed over 100% of their income last year has added to criticism of President François Hollande’s policies. But the bigger point is that rising... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is monetary policy too loose for Germany? This Update addresses the question of whether monetary policy is now too loose for Germany and, if so, what can be done about it? While there are various policies that could be adopted at the national... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The Q1 estimate of Greek GDP and the credit rating upgrade by Fitch suggests that the economy may finally be turning a corner. But we still think that the economic forecasts underpinning the rescue... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What negative rates would mean for euro-zone neighbours As a result of ultra-loose monetary policy in major economies, central banks in smaller countries such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are struggling to deal with both rising private debt... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany's role in a solution to the euro-zone debt crisis This Update summarises views expressed by Capital Economics’ Jennifer McKeown in a panel discussion at the Euromoney “Germany Conference” in Berlin on 24th and 25th April. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election campaign offers no hope of fiscal boost The growing likelihood of a grand coalition government after September’s election suggests that Germany’s tough stance on the euro-zone periphery might soften somewhat. However, none of the main... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB make negative rates work? The ECB appears to have concluded that it can limit the adverse side-effects of imposing negative interest rates on commercial banks’ deposits. But even if this is the case, negative rates are not... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
