Europe Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB joins the forward guidance club The ECB’s unprecedented step in joining other central banks in providing forward guidance on future policy is a welcome one. But it won’t transform the outlook for the euro-zone economy. 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch households sinking deeper into the doldrums Burdened by the euro-zone’s most indebted households, the Netherlands is stuck in its third recession in five years. With pressure on households likely to intensify, the country’s AAA-rating will come... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) Although the peripheral economies remain mired in recession, some fiscal progress is being made, particularly in Greece. 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 13) May’s monetary data revealed that bank credit contracted again, reinforcing our belief that the ECB will be forced into further action by the end of the year. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is another Greek election in the offing? While the withdrawal of the smallest party from the Greek coalition is certainly an unwelcome development, for now at least, the Government should be able to limp on. But if the Troika forces it to... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian public finances remain in a precarious state We doubt that the new growth measures adopted by the Italian government will have much effect on the economy and still expect the 2013 budget deficit to be well above target. Based on this and Italy’s... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cut still a possibility The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank rate cut still a possibility The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could a global bond sell-off reignite the euro-zone crisis? A further rise in global bond yields could push borrowing costs for some euro-zone governments back towards danger levels and underline the limitations of the ECB’s OMT programme. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out appears safe...for now We doubt that the recent bout of political uncertainty, coupled with concerns over the Government’s ability to meet the privatisation targets set by the Troika, poses a serious near-term threat to... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What the Dutch current account says about the euro-zone As the euro-zone periphery struggles to pay off its external debt, core countries like the Netherlands are still running record current account surpluses. But the Netherlands seems unlikely to reduce... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The external adjustment has only just begun Most peripheral euro-zone economies have made impressive progress in narrowing their current account deficits. But so far this is only a correction in flows; theses economies have made little or no... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
