Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic-Sep The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Less could be more when it comes to forward guidance The ECB’s apparent success in verbally influencing the financial markets might reflect the vagueness of the central bank’s communications. But policy actions will always mean more than words. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Happy Birthday OMTs – it could be downhill from here The ECB’s OMT programme has had a successful first year. But there are still reasons to doubt that it has solved the euro-zone crisis and the programme’s effects could fade in the coming months. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug 13.) The smaller peripheral euro-zone economies continue to make solid inroads into their budget deficits. But the Italian and Spanish deficits have fallen only modestly. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in July suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery could be jobless for some time The euro-zone’s nascent recovery is unlikely to prompt a significant improvement in labour market conditions for quite some time. This suggests that wage growth and consumer spending will remain... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB’s forward guidance working? The limited rise in euro-zone market interest rates might suggest that the ECB’s forward guidance is working. But it would be premature to conclude that the central bank can continue to protect the... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt dynamics still look ugly Despite the recent upward revision to our forecast for Italian GDP growth, we still think that the Government’s budget deficit and debt forecasts are too sanguine. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Return to growth won’t eliminate euro-zone default risks The recent return of economic growth in the euro-zone does not eradicate the risk that some of the peripheral economies will undertake some form of sovereign default. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Exports alone can’t save Slovenia Slovenia’s large export sector is faring rather well, supporting the country’s efforts to avoid a bail-out from the euro-zone. But exporters alone will not save Slovenia. Rather, the Government needs... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Respite from French recession, but recovery hopes overblown Q2’s 0.5% quarterly rise in French GDP, which was the strongest in over two years, has prompted optimism that the economy has finally joined Germany on a path to solid growth. But while we have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
