Europe Economics Update More LTROs could have a downside The execution of more long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) by the ECB could ease concerns over a potential liquidity crisis in the banking sector. But it could also further strengthen the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel wins strong mandate to stick to her guns While Angela Merkel did not win enough votes to govern alone in yesterday’s election, her strong support was a clear vindication of her domestic and international policy stance so far. She is likely... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch labour market downturn to deepen The Dutch labour market – once the envy of the euro-zone – will continue to shed jobs over the coming year. And as firms attempt to recover previous sharp falls in productivity, employment growth is... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to remain in strongly accommodative mode Despite the improvement in financial market conditions, continued recovery of the Swiss economy and softening of the franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) re-emphasised today that it intends to... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hiking cycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fed tapering could test the ECB's resolve We don’t expect the announcement of Fed tapering to have an immediately adverse effect on the euro-zone’s financial markets and economy. But a new phase in which other central banks are starting to... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal to remain under pressure Given the progress that the Portuguese Government has made towards cutting its borrowing, the Troika is likely to grant it at least part of its next bail-out tranche after negotiations this week. But... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will tourism kick-start a Greek economic recovery? Recent developments in Greece’s tourism sector suggest that the economy might record another quarterly rise in GDP in Q3. But even if this is the case, we suspect that this will not mark the start of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bavarian state election points to national grand coalition While the CSU, sister party to Angela Merkel’s CDU, won a clear victory in Bavaria yesterday, the poor showing for the FDP bodes ill for the current coalition at a national level. The chance of Mrs... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. But we think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. Butwe think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won’t fuel the euro-zone recovery Hopes that looser or less tight fiscal policy will fuel the recovery in the euro-zone economy are unlikely to be met. For the foreseeable future, fiscal policy will remain a sizeable drag on growth. 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a left-wing coalition mean for Germany? The possible coalition of Germany’s SPD, Green and Left parties after next week’s election would probably mean slightly higher taxes and spending than under the more likely alternatives of a grand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The quarterly rise in Greek GDP in Q2 raises hopes that the economy has reached a turning point. But we doubt that Greece is now on the path to recovery and still think that further financial... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes balance between optimism and support President Draghi walked a tightrope today in acknowledging the nascent recovery while at the same time trying not to raise markets’ interest rate expectations. We think that he will fulfil his pledge... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
