Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The latest figures on the public finances show that Italy and Portugal are struggling to reduce their budget deficits, but Ireland, Greece and Spain are faring rather better. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The further weakening in the key euro-zone monetary aggregates in June has further strengthened the case for additional policy stimulus from the ECB. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices still have much further to fall There is little sign that the Spanish housing downturn will come to an end any time soon. Not only does this spell bad news for households, it will also pile even more pressure on the troubled banks. 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EFSF downgrade adds to pressure on core countries Fitch’s downgrade of the EFSF has limited implications for the time being. But it will add to pressure on the euro-zone’s core countries who guarantee the various bail-out mechanisms to continue with... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Spanish labour market really on the mend? Some commentators have pointed to the recent run of encouraging Spanish unemployment figures as evidence that the green shoots of recovery may be emerging there. But we are far from convinced that the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal be granted another bail-out? The risk of Portugal needing more financial support is growing. Even if a second bail-out can be agreed in the run-up to the German election, it is likely to involve private sector losses. And the ECB... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB joins the forward guidance club The ECB’s unprecedented step in joining other central banks in providing forward guidance on future policy is a welcome one. But it won’t transform the outlook for the euro-zone economy. 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch households sinking deeper into the doldrums Burdened by the euro-zone’s most indebted households, the Netherlands is stuck in its third recession in five years. With pressure on households likely to intensify, the country’s AAA-rating will come... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) Although the peripheral economies remain mired in recession, some fiscal progress is being made, particularly in Greece. 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read