Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug 13.) The smaller peripheral euro-zone economies continue to make solid inroads into their budget deficits. But the Italian and Spanish deficits have fallen only modestly. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in July suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery could be jobless for some time The euro-zone’s nascent recovery is unlikely to prompt a significant improvement in labour market conditions for quite some time. This suggests that wage growth and consumer spending will remain... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB’s forward guidance working? The limited rise in euro-zone market interest rates might suggest that the ECB’s forward guidance is working. But it would be premature to conclude that the central bank can continue to protect the... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt dynamics still look ugly Despite the recent upward revision to our forecast for Italian GDP growth, we still think that the Government’s budget deficit and debt forecasts are too sanguine. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Return to growth won’t eliminate euro-zone default risks The recent return of economic growth in the euro-zone does not eradicate the risk that some of the peripheral economies will undertake some form of sovereign default. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Exports alone can’t save Slovenia Slovenia’s large export sector is faring rather well, supporting the country’s efforts to avoid a bail-out from the euro-zone. But exporters alone will not save Slovenia. Rather, the Government needs... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Respite from French recession, but recovery hopes overblown Q2’s 0.5% quarterly rise in French GDP, which was the strongest in over two years, has prompted optimism that the economy has finally joined Germany on a path to solid growth. But while we have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German minimum wage won’t rebalance the euro-zone Germany seems set to introduce a national minimum wage after September’s election. But it will probably do little to boost German consumer spending or to rebalance the euro-zone more generally. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika’s Greek economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Greek GDP figures, which suggest that the economy may have expanded in Q2, confirm that Greece has benefitted from the recent period of relative calm and stability. But a strong and sustained... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Hollande reverse the trend in French unemployment? Time is running short for President François Hollande to fulfil his vow to reverse the trend of rising French unemployment by the end of 2013. Despite the recent improvement in the business surveys... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Denmark to drag itself out of property slump The Danish property market, at the heart of the country’s long slump, is on the mend. This suggests that the economy is finally turning a corner, but the recovery in both house prices and the wider... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Denmark to drag itself out of property slump The Danish property market, at the heart of the country’s long slump, is on the mend. This suggests that the economy is finally turning a corner, but the recovery in both house prices and the wider... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB does little to improve transparency A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read