Europe Economics Update Will Italian government bond spreads continue to fall? Given the recent run of positive economic news from the euro-zone, it is perhaps no surprise that the spread between Italian and German government bond yields has narrowed. But we remain concerned... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Long German coalition talks won't cause much change While the struggle to form a new German Government looks set to continue for another month, this does not mean that major change is afoot. Angela Merkel might make some concessions on a national... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will happen after next year's bank stress tests? Euro-zone Finance Ministers made little progress on Banking Union at their summit this week. If next year’s stress tests find large holes in bank balance sheets, there is still no clear mechanism to... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget keeps Ireland on track for bail-out exit Ireland’s 2014 Budget presented an apparently conducive backdrop for the country’s exit from its euro-zone support programme later this year. But Ireland’s post bail-out prosperity is not yet assured... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slovenia can still save itself from a bail-out Speculation has risen in recent weeks that Slovenia will be forced into some form of euro-zone bailout. But the country can still avoid asking for outside help in dealing with its banking crisis. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB in no hurry to provide further support President Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone about the euro-zone’s nascent recovery. But while he made it clear that the ECB stands ready to prevent excessive rises in market interest rates... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Greece’s privatisation targets flawed? A contentious component of the Greek bail-out package has been its privatisation programme. This Update summarises some of the views expressed at a panel discussion in which Ben May was involved at... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renewed political uncertainty adds to Italy's problems Silvio Berlusconi’s decision to withdraw his support for the coalition Government may not trigger elections. But the fragile political situation highlights the huge challenges that Italy faces just to... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in August suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Greece and Ireland have continued to cut their budget deficits. But the fragile political situation in Italy has contributed to some budget slippage there. 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update More LTROs could have a downside The execution of more long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) by the ECB could ease concerns over a potential liquidity crisis in the banking sector. But it could also further strengthen the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel wins strong mandate to stick to her guns While Angela Merkel did not win enough votes to govern alone in yesterday’s election, her strong support was a clear vindication of her domestic and international policy stance so far. She is likely... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch labour market downturn to deepen The Dutch labour market – once the envy of the euro-zone – will continue to shed jobs over the coming year. And as firms attempt to recover previous sharp falls in productivity, employment growth is... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to remain in strongly accommodative mode Despite the improvement in financial market conditions, continued recovery of the Swiss economy and softening of the franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) re-emphasised today that it intends to... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hiking cycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read