Europe Economics Update Dutch firms will not power a decent recovery Dutch investment has expanded strongly in recent quarters. But, while firms are in much better financial health than households, they won’t drive a decent recovery in the wider economy. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek recession shows no signs of ending Q3’s GDP figures suggest that Greece is not yet benefitting from the modest economic revival in the euro-zone as a whole and we continue to think that the economic forecasts on which its bail-out... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB has more work to do to tackle the strong euro Last week’s cut in ECB interest rates has helped to relieve some of the near-term upward pressure on the euro. But the central bank will have to work harder to stop the strong currency from snuffing... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Downgrade highlights France's slow fiscal progress The downgrade of France’s sovereign credit rating last week highlighted the country’s fiscal problems. Although a French debt crisis is still a fairly distant prospect, France’s weak fiscal position... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain's fiscal prospects look brighter than Italy's Spain still faces major economic challenges, but we think that prospects there are brighter than in Italy where the medium-term outlook for the public finances remains pretty dire. Accordingly, we... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rate cut welcome, but not a game-changer While the ECB’s largely unexpected decision to cut interest rates was welcome, the central bank cannot address the deep-seated problems still facing the currency union. 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway's housing boom is ending Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s housing boom is ending Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB fear deflation? There are some good reasons why the ECB should be worried about the prospect of a bout of consumer price deflation in the euro-zone. But it is not clear that it has the firepower to prevent it. 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Any fall in French unemployment will be largely illusory Contrary to expectations, French President François Hollande may fulfil his promise to reduce unemployment by the end of the year. But he will do so by relying on temporary initiatives rather than... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risks too great for Cyprus to fully relax capital controls Although Cyprus has already begun to gradually relax its capital controls, restrictions on deposits leaving the country remain in place. With a fragile banking sector and an economy deep in recession... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) On balance, the smaller peripheral economies in the euro-zone are still making inroads into their budget deficits, but there are some signs that Italy and Spain are faring a bit less well. 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data perhaps offered tentative signs that the fall in bank lending is easing, but a decent pick-up in credit remains a distant prospect. 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy rates unchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect either to hike... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy ratesunchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect eitherto hike rates... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spain really on the path to recovery? Q3’s GDP estimate from the Bank of Spain suggests that the economy has finally emerged from its two year long recession. But we doubt that the economy will generate a strong enough recovery to bring... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read